NASDAQ$CACC

Credit Acceptance · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Credit Acceptance reported consolidated net income for Q3 2021.

Credit Acceptance Corporation announced consolidated net income of $250.0 million, or $15.79 per diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2021, compared to consolidated net income of $242.1 million, or $13.56 per diluted share, for the same period in 2020. Adjusted net income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for the three months ended September 30, 2021 was $219.1 million, or $13.84 per diluted share, compared to $167.0 million, or $9.36 per diluted share, for the same period in 2020.

  • Forecasted collection rates for Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 through 2021 increased, which increased forecasted net cash flows from our loan portfolio by $82.3 million.
  • Forecasted profitability per Consumer Loan assignment is in excess of our initial estimate for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 and significantly in excess of our initial estimates for Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 through 2020.
  • Consumer Loan assignment volume declined, as unit and dollar volumes declined 29.4% and 17.9%, respectively, as compared to the third quarter of 2020.
  • Stock repurchases of approximately 1.3 million shares, which represented 8.0% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$470M

Previous: $427M+10.2%
EPS (adj)

$13.84

Previous: $9.36+47.9%
Consumer Loan unit volume

55.6K

Previous: 78.7K-29.4%
Active dealers

7.6K

Previous: 8.9K-15.0%
Average volume per active dealer

7.3

Previous: 8.8-17.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.1M

Previous: -$7.7M+20.8%
Free Cash Flow

$244M

Previous: $234M+4.1%
Net Income

$250M

Previous: $242M+3.3%
Operating Income

$454M

Previous: $382M+18.9%
Gross Profit

$460M

Previous: $416M+10.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$13.3M

Previous: $8.9M+49.4%
Total Assets

$7.2B

Previous: $7.42B-3.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.2M

Previous: $1.5M+913.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Credit Acceptance · Revenue · Quarterly

$470M

Q3 2021+10.2%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Credit Acceptance · $470M total across 3 segments · Q3 2021

  • Finance charges
    $442M+9.3%
  • Premiums earned
    $15.4M+2.0%
  • Other income
    $12.6M+80.0%

Forward guidance

We claim the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 for all of our forward-looking statements. Statements in this release that are not historical facts, such as those using terms like “may,” “will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “assume,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “target” and those regarding our future results, plans and objectives, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

Tailwinds

  • The company claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 for all of their forward-looking statements.
  • Statements in this release that are not historical facts, such as those using terms like “may,” “will,” “should,” “believe,” are forward-looking statements
  • The company's financing programs are offered through a nationwide network of automobile dealers who benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who otherwise could not obtain financing
  • Credit Acceptance provides consumers with an opportunity to improve their lives by improving their credit score and move on to more traditional sources of financing.
  • The company has been offering financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers since 1972

Headwinds

  • The outbreak of COVID-19 has adversely impacted the company's business.
  • The company's inability to accurately forecast and estimate the amount and timing of future collections could have a material adverse effect on results of operations.
  • Due to competition from traditional financing sources and non-traditional lenders, the company may not be able to compete successfully.
  • Reliance on third parties to administer the company's ancillary product offerings could adversely affect their business and financial results.
  • The company is dependent on their senior management and the loss of any of these individuals or an inability to hire additional team members could adversely affect their ability to operate profitably.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+21.3%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-15.8%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.7%+3.5%
Q4 2025+10.6%+12.4%+4.9%
Q3 2025+0.9%-0.2%+2.1%
Q1 2025-4.0%+2.0%-2.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%+1.0%-4.2%
Q3 2024-6.1%-6.4%+10.0%
Q2 2024-15.8%-18.4%-19.7%
Q1 2024-6.9%-4.3%-7.9%
Q4 2023+4.9%+1.9%-0.4%
Q3 2023-0.5%+9.6%+11.4%
Q2 2023-13.1%-10.5%-9.9%
Q1 2023-12.1%-8.0%-9.0%
Q4 2022+17.2%+17.6%+0.0%
Q3 2022-6.1%-4.9%+1.9%
Q2 2022-8.2%-5.5%-7.6%
Q1 2022+21.3%+17.0%+13.9%
Q4 2021-0.9%-1.9%+4.5%
Q3 2021+12.1%+14.7%+4.5%
Q2 2021+2.6%+14.5%+22.5%
Q1 2021+0.4%+6.3%+13.8%
Q4 2020-14.1%-10.1%-2.8%
Q3 2020-4.9%-3.7%-4.4%
Q2 2020-2.4%-0.9%-4.2%
Q1 2020+4.1%+11.5%+16.5%
Q4 2019-7.1%-6.3%-12.6%
Q3 2019-6.0%-3.2%-1.7%
Q2 2019-2.1%-4.5%-5.9%
Q1 2019-1.0%-0.7%-6.9%
Q4 2018-2.6%+4.4%+9.3%
Q3 2018+8.4%+6.8%+3.9%
Q2 2018+13.7%+18.7%+20.0%
Q1 2018-2.1%-0.6%+8.1%
Q4 2017-11.5%-14.4%-14.6%
Q3 2017-4.1%-6.1%+1.7%
Q2 2017+9.1%+9.1%+8.9%
Q1 2017+7.9%+6.1%+5.8%
Q4 2016-5.5%-1.7%-1.4%
Q3 2016-11.4%-9.2%+3.8%
Q2 2016+5.0%+6.1%+8.0%
Q1 2016-5.8%
Q4 2015-3.4%
Q3 2015-13.1%
Q2 2015+9.8%
Q1 2015+9.9%
Q4 2014+13.4%
Q3 2014+6.3%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014-6.9%
Q4 2013+8.1%
Q3 2013-0.7%
Q2 2013+0.4%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2009-7.5%
Q4 2012+3.5%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+4.2%
Q1 2011-7.3%
Q1 2012-0.5%
Q4 2011+0.0%
Q3 2011+5.6%
Q3 2010+5.6%
Q2 2011-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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