NYSE$WMS

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. · Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Advanced Drainage Systems announced financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.

Advanced Drainage Systems reported a decrease in financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, with net sales declining 5.8%, net income decreasing 19.6%, and diluted EPS falling 18.2%, largely influenced by unfavorable weather and the lingering impact of higher interest rates on construction markets.

  • Net sales decreased by 5.8% to $615.8 million in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year.
  • Net income decreased by 19.6% to $76.8 million, and diluted net income per share fell 18.2% to $0.99.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7.6% to $176.7 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.7%.
  • Domestic pipe sales decreased 11.3%, while Infiltrator sales increased 15.3% (though organic Infiltrator revenue decreased 4.5%).

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$616M

Previous: $654M-5.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $1.23-16.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$177M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

28.7%

Previous: 29.2%-1.7%
Net Income

$77.2M

Previous: $95.5M-19.2%
Operating Income

$117M

Previous: $135M-13.6%
Gross Profit

$226M

Previous: $252M-10.2%

Revenue & EPS history

ADS · Revenue · Quarterly

$616M

Q4 2025-5.8%vs Q4 2024
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADS · $3.09B total across 4 segments · Q4 2026

  • Domestic Pipe
    $1.5B
  • Domestic Allied Products
    $750M
  • Wastewater
    $653M
  • International
    $188M

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2026, the company expects net sales to be in the range of $2.825 billion to $2.975 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $850 million and $910 million.

Tailwinds

  • Orders are positive year-over-year entering fiscal 2026.
  • Company's diversified regional exposure, end market, and product mix are unique strengths.
  • Material conversion strategy remains strong with significant market opportunity.
  • Opportunities for growth with new products into fast-growing segments like data centers and infrastructure.
  • Confidence in the ability to grow and increase market share during the period of market uncertainty.

Headwinds

  • The end market outlook remains sluggish.
  • Demand continues to be impacted by higher interest rates.
  • Demand continues to be impacted by economic uncertainty.
  • Fiscal 2025 Q4 had unfavorable winter weather conditions compared to favorable weather in the prior year.
  • Pricing/cost remained in line with expectations but did not offset the impact of unfavorable volume in the fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2025

Historical avgQ4 2025

+3.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.2%

Avg return

30 days after

71%

34 / 48 earnings

Positive

+18.1%

Q4 2018

Best reaction

-26.7%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2026+1.4%
Q3 2026+6.1%+9.2%-8.8%
Q2 2026+8.9%+9.7%+10.5%
Q1 2026+17.3%+20.1%+30.3%
Q4 2025-3.4%-2.7%-7.1%
Q3 2025+1.4%+9.5%-1.0%
Q2 2025-14.6%-16.3%-18.3%
Q4 2024-1.2%+1.7%-3.0%
Q3 2024+17.4%+14.4%+17.1%
Q2 2024+4.1%+3.5%+16.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+7.2%+4.2%
Q4 2023+8.9%+8.3%+24.6%
Q3 2023-10.9%-8.4%-13.8%
Q2 2023-26.7%-25.0%-16.0%
Q1 2023+16.0%+16.0%+10.8%
Q4 2022+5.7%+7.6%-17.6%
Q3 2022+5.7%+1.9%+5.2%
Q2 2022+10.6%+18.4%+11.9%
Q1 2022-5.2%-4.2%-4.6%
Q4 2021+5.9%+8.8%-3.3%
Q3 2021+16.5%+15.0%+19.4%
Q2 2021-5.1%-7.8%+11.5%
Q1 2021+11.2%+11.5%+11.2%
Q4 2020+7.1%+6.1%+17.6%
Q3 2020+6.6%+7.6%+4.2%
Q2 2020+0.0%+1.4%+1.6%
Q1 2020+1.8%+1.7%-4.7%
Q4 2019+9.2%+6.5%+13.7%
Q3 2019-5.9%-3.7%-6.2%
Q2 2019-3.7%-8.4%-11.0%
Q1 2019+7.8%+10.8%+14.0%
Q4 2018+18.1%+15.0%+11.6%
Q3 2018+11.9%+21.7%+21.5%
Q2 2018+10.1%+11.1%+21.4%
Q1 2018+0.3%+13.1%-0.8%
Q4 2017-4.4%-8.3%-7.4%
Q3 2017+1.2%-2.5%-9.8%
Q2 2017+5.1%+1.1%+7.5%
Q1 2017-6.0%-2.5%-18.4%
Q2 2016+9.5%+7.9%+11.1%
Q4 2016+9.5%+7.9%+11.1%
Q1 2016+0.4%-1.6%+11.2%
Q3 2016+3.8%+5.6%+10.7%
Q4 2015+9.4%
Q3 2014-1.5%
Q3 2015-0.0%
Q2 2015+10.8%
Q1 2015+3.2%
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013

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