NYSE$TREX

Trex Co Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Trex reported strong Q3 2020 results driven by brand leadership and secular demand.

Trex Company reported a 19% increase in consolidated net sales, reaching $232 million. Net income increased by 2% to $43 million, or $0.37 per diluted share. Excluding a warranty charge, net income was $48 million, or $0.41 per diluted share.

  • Consolidated net sales increased 19% to $232 million.
  • Trex Residential Products net sales increased 20% to $218 million.
  • Consolidated diluted earnings per share of $0.37; excluding the warranty charge, diluted earnings per share of $0.41.
  • The company expects strong double-digit sales growth for full year 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$232M

Previous: $195M+19.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.41

Previous: $0.36+13.9%
Gross Margin

36.7%

Previous: 42.4%-13.4%
SG&A Expense

$12.10

Previous: $14.10-14.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$99.7M

Previous: -$36.9M-170.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$57M

Previous: $5.05M-1228.4%
Net Income

$42.7M

Previous: $42M+1.7%
Operating Income

$56.9M

Previous: $55M+3.5%
Gross Profit

$85M

Previous: $82.4M+3.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$20.1M

Previous: $133M-84.9%
Total Assets

$718M

Previous: $571M+25.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.62M

Previous: $926K+74.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Trex · Revenue · Quarterly

$232M

Q3 2020+19%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2020, Trex expects consolidated net sales of approximately $210 million to $220 million, representing 30% growth at the midpoint. They anticipate strong double-digit sales growth in 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Expect consolidated net sales of approximately $210 million to $220 million, representing 30% growth at the midpoint of the range.
  • Expect SG&A as a percentage of net sales to improve by approximately 150 basis points for the full year compared to the prior year.
  • Expect 2021 to deliver another year of strong double-digit sales growth.
  • Recently announced price increases on certain products that will go into effect at the beginning of the new year, combined with disciplined cost management and continuous improvement efforts, are expected to more than offset increased costs related to the new capacity ramp-up and expected inflation for raw materials.
  • The Trex Board of Directors has reinstated our share buyback program.

Headwinds

  • Expect incremental gross margin to be at the low end of the 45% to 50% range, excluding the warranty charge, and reflecting COVID-19 related expenses, inflation and logistics costs associated with startup expenses as we approach our Virginia facility coming online.
  • Material adverse impacts from global public health pandemics, including the strain of coronavirus known as COVID-19;
  • Material adverse impacts related to labor shortages or increases in labor costs.
  • The extent of market acceptance of the Company’s current and newly developed products
  • The costs associated with the development and launch of new products and the market acceptance of such new products

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+26.8%

Q3 2013

Best reaction

-31.1%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.9%-2.2%-0.7%
Q4 2025+0.7%-1.9%-14.3%
Q3 2025-31.1%-31.5%-26.7%
Q1 2025-1.0%+3.6%-2.8%
Q4 2024+1.2%+5.1%-5.8%
Q3 2024+9.8%+10.0%+15.7%
Q2 2024-20.4%-19.5%-19.4%
Q1 2024-3.8%-2.5%-11.7%
Q4 2023-0.7%+0.9%+5.8%
Q3 2023+3.6%+15.5%+29.4%
Q2 2023+9.7%+4.8%+2.9%
Q1 2023+10.2%+2.6%+5.4%
Q4 2022+2.0%-4.1%+5.9%
Q3 2022-10.6%-14.3%-7.0%
Q2 2022-16.0%-8.7%-27.2%
Q1 2022+5.7%+13.2%+16.5%
Q4 2021-8.0%-17.4%-22.0%
Q3 2021+16.2%+13.6%+23.0%
Q2 2021+0.3%+8.4%+14.4%
Q1 2021-2.5%-3.8%-10.1%
Q4 2020-11.2%-10.7%-14.7%
Q3 2020+2.0%+14.5%+6.2%
Q2 2020-0.3%-0.2%+9.3%
Q1 2020+18.8%+25.2%+27.1%
Q4 2019-2.4%-10.0%-23.4%
Q3 2019-6.6%-0.7%-2.8%
Q2 2019+14.3%+12.5%+18.4%
Q1 2019-8.9%-11.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018-1.2%+0.7%-9.7%
Q3 2018-0.5%+7.6%+5.0%
Q2 2018+20.2%+21.4%+30.1%
Q1 2018+12.6%+9.1%+19.4%
Q4 2017-4.9%+0.2%-3.1%
Q3 2017+22.8%+17.1%+31.1%
Q2 2017+3.4%+6.5%+3.1%
Q1 2017-7.5%-10.8%-7.9%
Q4 2016-5.7%-5.0%-0.4%
Q3 2016+11.0%+22.3%+27.6%
Q2 2016+17.4%+22.2%+27.7%
Q1 2016-6.5%
Q4 2015+16.9%
Q3 2015-2.9%
Q2 2015-10.6%
Q1 2015+0.3%
Q4 2014+4.1%
Q3 2014+7.7%
Q2 2014+18.5%
Q1 2014-10.9%
Q4 2013+10.8%
Q3 2013+26.8%
Q2 2013-11.7%
Q1 2013+8.4%
Q4 2012+7.6%
Q3 2012+12.4%
Q2 2012-5.9%
Q1 2011-6.9%
Q1 2012-0.5%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2011+3.6%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011-13.5%
Q4 2010-13.5%
Q2 2010-13.5%
Q1 2010-2.5%

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