NYSE$TREX

Trex Co Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Trex reported strong Q4 2023 results, with sales exceeding guidance and channel inventories at historically low levels.

Trex Company reported Q4 2023 net sales of $196 million, a gross margin of 36.1%, and net income of $22 million, or $0.20 per diluted share. The results reflect strong demand for Trex products and effective management through an uncertain business environment.

  • Net sales reached $196 million, exceeding the high end of guidance.
  • Gross margin was 36.1% for the quarter.
  • Net income amounted to $22 million, with diluted earnings per share at $0.20.
  • EBITDA was $41 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21.0%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$196M

Previous: $192M+1.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: $0.23-13.0%
Gross Margin

36.1%

Previous: 34.1%+5.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$53.2M

Previous: $68.1M-178.1%
Net Income

$22M

Previous: $10.1M+118.3%
Operating Income

$28.1M

Previous: $14.6M+92.4%
Gross Profit

$70.6M

Previous: $65.5M+7.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.78M

Previous: $1.8M+54.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Trex · Revenue · Quarterly

$196M

Q4 2023+1.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company anticipates double-digit sales growth and further margin expansion in 2024, with net sales ranging from $1.215 billion to $1.235 billion and EBITDA margin expected to be in the range of 30.0% to 30.5%.

Tailwinds

  • Double-digit sales growth expected in 2024.
  • EBITDA margin expansion anticipated to be approximately 75 basis points.
  • Approximately 60% of full year revenues are expected to occur in the first half of the year.
  • Continued investment in branding, sales, marketing programs, and cost-out programs.
  • New product development remains a priority.

Headwinds

  • Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $220 million primarily tied to the development of a new Arkansas campus.
  • Uncertain business environment.
  • Potential risks and uncertainties that could affect the company's operating results.
  • Sensitivity of the company’s business to general economic conditions.
  • Impact of seasonal and weather-related demand fluctuations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+26.8%

Q3 2013

Best reaction

-31.1%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.9%-2.2%-0.7%
Q4 2025+0.7%-1.9%-14.3%
Q3 2025-31.1%-31.5%-26.7%
Q1 2025-1.0%+3.6%-2.8%
Q4 2024+1.2%+5.1%-5.8%
Q3 2024+9.8%+10.0%+15.7%
Q2 2024-20.4%-19.5%-19.4%
Q1 2024-3.8%-2.5%-11.7%
Q4 2023-0.7%+0.9%+5.8%
Q3 2023+3.6%+15.5%+29.4%
Q2 2023+9.7%+4.8%+2.9%
Q1 2023+10.2%+2.6%+5.4%
Q4 2022+2.0%-4.1%+5.9%
Q3 2022-10.6%-14.3%-7.0%
Q2 2022-16.0%-8.7%-27.2%
Q1 2022+5.7%+13.2%+16.5%
Q4 2021-8.0%-17.4%-22.0%
Q3 2021+16.2%+13.6%+23.0%
Q2 2021+0.3%+8.4%+14.4%
Q1 2021-2.5%-3.8%-10.1%
Q4 2020-11.2%-10.7%-14.7%
Q3 2020+2.0%+14.5%+6.2%
Q2 2020-0.3%-0.2%+9.3%
Q1 2020+18.8%+25.2%+27.1%
Q4 2019-2.4%-10.0%-23.4%
Q3 2019-6.6%-0.7%-2.8%
Q2 2019+14.3%+12.5%+18.4%
Q1 2019-8.9%-11.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018-1.2%+0.7%-9.7%
Q3 2018-0.5%+7.6%+5.0%
Q2 2018+20.2%+21.4%+30.1%
Q1 2018+12.6%+9.1%+19.4%
Q4 2017-4.9%+0.2%-3.1%
Q3 2017+22.8%+17.1%+31.1%
Q2 2017+3.4%+6.5%+3.1%
Q1 2017-7.5%-10.8%-7.9%
Q4 2016-5.7%-5.0%-0.4%
Q3 2016+11.0%+22.3%+27.6%
Q2 2016+17.4%+22.2%+27.7%
Q1 2016-6.5%
Q4 2015+16.9%
Q3 2015-2.9%
Q2 2015-10.6%
Q1 2015+0.3%
Q4 2014+4.1%
Q3 2014+7.7%
Q2 2014+18.5%
Q1 2014-10.9%
Q4 2013+10.8%
Q3 2013+26.8%
Q2 2013-11.7%
Q1 2013+8.4%
Q4 2012+7.6%
Q3 2012+12.4%
Q2 2012-5.9%
Q1 2011-6.9%
Q1 2012-0.5%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2011+3.6%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011-13.5%
Q4 2010-13.5%
Q2 2010-13.5%
Q1 2010-2.5%

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