NYSE$QUAD

Quad/Graphics Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Quad reported an increase in net sales and adjusted EBITDA, driven by pricing and international growth.

Quad reported a 4% increase in net sales to $885 million and an adjusted EBITDA increase to $79 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.41. However, the company reported a net loss of $9 million for the quarter.

  • Net Sales increased by 4% due to increased pricing and growth in international locations and Targeted Print offerings.
  • Net Loss improved by $12 million compared to Q4 2021, driven by increased earnings from Net Sales growth and higher productivity.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by $19 million due to production labor staffing initiatives.
  • Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share increased primarily due to higher recurring earnings and share repurchases.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$885M

Previous: $855M+3.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.41

Previous: $0.10+310.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$79M

Previous: $56.4M+40.1%
Capital Expenditures

$10.8M

Previous: $8.4M+28.6%
Free Cash Flow

$174M

Previous: $106M+64.2%
Net Income

-$8.7M

Previous: -$21M+58.6%
Operating Income

$8.7M

Previous: -$4.2M+307.1%
Gross Profit

$178M

Previous: $153M+16.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$25.2M

Previous: $180M-86.0%
Total Assets

$1.7B

Previous: $1.89B-10.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.1M

Previous: -$400K+375.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Quad · Revenue · Quarterly

$885M

Q4 2022+3.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 4 of 14 quarters(29%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Quad · $885M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • United States Print and Related Services
    $781M+2.9%
  • International
    $104M+8.7%

Forward guidance

Quad anticipates continued growth in Agency Solutions in 2023, but expects a decrease in Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA from lower print volumes due to economic uncertainty. The company plans to use Free Cash Flow to reduce Net Debt Leverage to 2.0x by the end of 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Continued growth in Agency Solutions offerings.
  • Focus on using Free Cash Flow to reduce debt.
  • Targeting Net Debt Leverage of 2.0x by the end of 2023.
  • Expect to have paid off $564 million of debt since January 1, 2020.
  • Ongoing investments in growth as a marketing experience company.

Headwinds

  • Economic uncertainty impacting client spending.
  • Expected decrease in Net Sales from lower print volumes.
  • Expected decrease in Adjusted EBITDA from lower print volumes.
  • Decrease in Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA from lower print volumes will exceed the benefits from ongoing Agency growth.
  • Potential need to align cost structure to revenue opportunities.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

33 / 64 earnings

Positive

+33.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-55.3%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-10.7%+1.8%-4.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%+6.7%-0.6%
Q3 2025-12.3%-10.7%-5.4%
Q1 2025-7.9%+6.0%+12.5%
Q4 2024+10.8%-11.8%-21.7%
Q3 2024+14.9%+24.5%+41.7%
Q2 2024-19.3%-26.0%-17.7%
Q1 2024-1.5%+4.6%+0.0%
Q4 2023-9.5%-17.8%-18.6%
Q3 2023-14.1%-9.5%-7.2%
Q2 2023-12.5%-4.6%-13.7%
Q1 2023-10.0%-17.3%-1.8%
Q4 2022+7.0%+21.4%-2.8%
Q3 2022+14.0%+18.0%+34.5%
Q2 2022+8.1%+9.4%+1.6%
Q1 2022-24.6%-25.2%-35.2%
Q4 2021+2.0%+9.8%+33.4%
Q3 2021+14.5%+8.1%-7.4%
Q2 2021+10.6%+37.9%+19.5%
Q1 2021-3.2%-13.7%-0.8%
Q4 2020-2.3%-16.7%-25.5%
Q3 2020-4.3%-6.1%+45.5%
Q2 2020+6.4%+4.5%+3.0%
Q1 2020-0.6%+9.4%+12.0%
Q4 2019+20.5%+14.7%-26.4%
Q3 2019-55.3%-57.3%-58.7%
Q2 2019+33.5%+34.5%+7.4%
Q1 2019-10.0%-9.0%-29.8%
Q4 2018+11.8%+8.3%-20.0%
Q3 2018-7.0%-11.9%-10.2%
Q2 2018+22.9%+8.5%+13.1%
Q1 2018-15.3%-25.5%-20.0%
Q4 2017+33.9%+25.6%+15.5%
Q3 2017+2.0%+4.5%+2.4%
Q2 2017-10.7%-14.2%-15.1%
Q1 2017+5.0%-1.6%-15.2%
Q4 2016-4.2%+4.0%-9.3%
Q3 2016+0.6%+1.8%+2.7%
Q2 2016+12.8%+14.0%+6.8%
Q1 2016+24.5%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015-25.6%
Q2 2015-5.7%
Q1 2015-1.5%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014-1.0%
Q2 2014-1.2%
Q1 2014-2.1%
Q4 2013-5.4%
Q3 2013-19.3%
Q2 2013+4.2%
Q1 2013+5.5%
Q4 2012+4.3%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-4.9%
Q1 2011+5.0%
Q1 2012+5.6%
Q4 2009+10.1%
Q4 2011+10.1%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011+11.0%
Q4 2010+11.0%
Q3 2010-1.6%
Q2 2010+1.9%
Q1 2010

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