NYSE$QUAD

Quad/Graphics Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Quad reported a net sales decrease but maintained EBITDA margins and reduced debt.

Quad reported a 16% decrease in net sales to $700 million, resulting in a net loss of $3 million, or $0.06 loss per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $57 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.11. Despite the revenue challenges, the company focused on cost management, productivity, and debt reduction, reducing net debt by $132 million over the last 12 months.

  • Net Sales decreased by 16% to $700 million compared to Q3 2022.
  • Net Loss was $3 million, or $0.06 diluted loss per share, compared to net earnings of $14 million, or $0.27 diluted earnings per share in Q3 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $57 million, compared to $69 million in Q3 2022.
  • Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share was $0.11, compared to $0.32 in Q3 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$700M

Previous: $830M-15.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.11

Previous: $0.32-65.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$57M

No prior period
Net Debt Leverage Ratio

2.36

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$59.5M

Previous: -$49.5M-20.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$62.2M

Previous: -$35.8M-73.7%
Net Income

-$2.7M

Previous: $13.7M-119.7%
Operating Income

$13.7M

Previous: $25.2M-45.6%
Gross Profit

$139M

Previous: $156M-10.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$11M

Previous: $14M-21.4%
Total Assets

$1.57B

Previous: $1.79B-12.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.3M

Previous: $1.1M+18.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Quad · Revenue · Quarterly

$700M

Q3 2023-15.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 14 quarters(29%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Quad · $700M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • United States Print and Related Services
    $608M-14.7%
  • International
    $92.2M-21.1%

Forward guidance

Quad updated its full-year 2023 financial guidance, lowering the range for Net Sales change while narrowing and maintaining the original mid-points of guidance ranges for Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow and reaffirming the year-end Debt Leverage Ratio.

Tailwinds

  • The company expects its Debt Leverage Ratio to be approximately 2.0x by the end of 2023.
  • The company intends to reduce debt further in 2024.
  • Quad has completed $20 million of share buybacks since the second quarter of 2022.
  • The company is maintaining the midpoint of its guidance ranges for Adjusted EBITDA.
  • The company is maintaining the midpoint of its guidance ranges for Free Cash Flow.

Headwinds

  • Annual Net Sales change is expected to decline by 7% to 9%.
  • Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $220 million and $240 million.
  • Free Cash Flow is expected to be between $60 million and $80 million.
  • Capital Expenditures are expected to be between $70 million and $75 million.
  • Industry-wide print volume reductions are impacting net sales.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

33 / 64 earnings

Positive

+33.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-55.3%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-10.7%+1.8%-4.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%+6.7%-0.6%
Q3 2025-12.3%-10.7%-5.4%
Q1 2025-7.9%+6.0%+12.5%
Q4 2024+10.8%-11.8%-21.7%
Q3 2024+14.9%+24.5%+41.7%
Q2 2024-19.3%-26.0%-17.7%
Q1 2024-1.5%+4.6%+0.0%
Q4 2023-9.5%-17.8%-18.6%
Q3 2023-14.1%-9.5%-7.2%
Q2 2023-12.5%-4.6%-13.7%
Q1 2023-10.0%-17.3%-1.8%
Q4 2022+7.0%+21.4%-2.8%
Q3 2022+14.0%+18.0%+34.5%
Q2 2022+8.1%+9.4%+1.6%
Q1 2022-24.6%-25.2%-35.2%
Q4 2021+2.0%+9.8%+33.4%
Q3 2021+14.5%+8.1%-7.4%
Q2 2021+10.6%+37.9%+19.5%
Q1 2021-3.2%-13.7%-0.8%
Q4 2020-2.3%-16.7%-25.5%
Q3 2020-4.3%-6.1%+45.5%
Q2 2020+6.4%+4.5%+3.0%
Q1 2020-0.6%+9.4%+12.0%
Q4 2019+20.5%+14.7%-26.4%
Q3 2019-55.3%-57.3%-58.7%
Q2 2019+33.5%+34.5%+7.4%
Q1 2019-10.0%-9.0%-29.8%
Q4 2018+11.8%+8.3%-20.0%
Q3 2018-7.0%-11.9%-10.2%
Q2 2018+22.9%+8.5%+13.1%
Q1 2018-15.3%-25.5%-20.0%
Q4 2017+33.9%+25.6%+15.5%
Q3 2017+2.0%+4.5%+2.4%
Q2 2017-10.7%-14.2%-15.1%
Q1 2017+5.0%-1.6%-15.2%
Q4 2016-4.2%+4.0%-9.3%
Q3 2016+0.6%+1.8%+2.7%
Q2 2016+12.8%+14.0%+6.8%
Q1 2016+24.5%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015-25.6%
Q2 2015-5.7%
Q1 2015-1.5%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014-1.0%
Q2 2014-1.2%
Q1 2014-2.1%
Q4 2013-5.4%
Q3 2013-19.3%
Q2 2013+4.2%
Q1 2013+5.5%
Q4 2012+4.3%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-4.9%
Q1 2011+5.0%
Q1 2012+5.6%
Q4 2009+10.1%
Q4 2011+10.1%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011+11.0%
Q4 2010+11.0%
Q3 2010-1.6%
Q2 2010+1.9%
Q1 2010

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