NYSE$QUAD

Quad/Graphics Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Quad's Q4 2019 results exceeded expectations due to strong customer service and strategic execution.

Quad/Graphics reported Q4 2019 results that exceeded expectations, driven by excellent customer service, aggressive cost management, and increased manufacturing productivity. The company's strategic priorities and investments in hourly production employees' wages contributed to strong quality and on-time delivery. Quad is focused on transforming into a marketing solutions partner and offsetting print industry volume declines.

  • Net sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 4.9% compared to 2018.
  • Net earnings attributable to Quad common shareholders were $8 million, or $0.15 diluted earnings per share, compared to a net loss of $21 million in 2018.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $96 million, compared to $118 million in 2018, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.0%.
  • The company reduced its Debt Leverage Ratio to 3.1x in the fourth quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.07B

Previous: $1.18B-9.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.38

Previous: $0.53-28.3%
Net Debt Leverage Ratio

3.1

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$12.5M

Previous: $11.3M+10.6%
Free Cash Flow

$139M

Previous: $203M-31.5%
Net Income

$7.5M

Previous: -$20.8M+136.1%
Operating Income

$29M

Previous: -$10.6M+373.6%
Gross Profit

$202M

Previous: $203M-0.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$78.7M

Previous: $69.5M+13.2%
Total Assets

$2.42B

Previous: $2.47B-2.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2M

Previous: $3.3M-39.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Quad · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.07B

Q4 2019-9.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 7 of 14 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Quad · $1.07B total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • United States Print and Related Services
    $965M-5.6%
  • International
    $105M+2.2%

Forward guidance

Quad provided its 2020 financial guidance, anticipating net sales between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $285 million and $315 million, and free cash flow between $100 million and $130 million.

Tailwinds

  • Disciplined cost management efforts.
  • Drive earnings growth.
  • Drive Free Cash Flow growth.
  • Reduce leverage.
  • Further strengthen balance sheet.

Headwinds

  • Ongoing print industry volume pressures.
  • Ongoing print industry pricing pressures.
  • Net Sales between $3.5 to $3.7 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $285 to $315 million.
  • Free Cash Flow between $100 to $130 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

33 / 64 earnings

Positive

+33.9%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-55.3%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-10.7%+1.8%-4.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%+6.7%-0.6%
Q3 2025-12.3%-10.7%-5.4%
Q1 2025-7.9%+6.0%+12.5%
Q4 2024+10.8%-11.8%-21.7%
Q3 2024+14.9%+24.5%+41.7%
Q2 2024-19.3%-26.0%-17.7%
Q1 2024-1.5%+4.6%+0.0%
Q4 2023-9.5%-17.8%-18.6%
Q3 2023-14.1%-9.5%-7.2%
Q2 2023-12.5%-4.6%-13.7%
Q1 2023-10.0%-17.3%-1.8%
Q4 2022+7.0%+21.4%-2.8%
Q3 2022+14.0%+18.0%+34.5%
Q2 2022+8.1%+9.4%+1.6%
Q1 2022-24.6%-25.2%-35.2%
Q4 2021+2.0%+9.8%+33.4%
Q3 2021+14.5%+8.1%-7.4%
Q2 2021+10.6%+37.9%+19.5%
Q1 2021-3.2%-13.7%-0.8%
Q4 2020-2.3%-16.7%-25.5%
Q3 2020-4.3%-6.1%+45.5%
Q2 2020+6.4%+4.5%+3.0%
Q1 2020-0.6%+9.4%+12.0%
Q4 2019+20.5%+14.7%-26.4%
Q3 2019-55.3%-57.3%-58.7%
Q2 2019+33.5%+34.5%+7.4%
Q1 2019-10.0%-9.0%-29.8%
Q4 2018+11.8%+8.3%-20.0%
Q3 2018-7.0%-11.9%-10.2%
Q2 2018+22.9%+8.5%+13.1%
Q1 2018-15.3%-25.5%-20.0%
Q4 2017+33.9%+25.6%+15.5%
Q3 2017+2.0%+4.5%+2.4%
Q2 2017-10.7%-14.2%-15.1%
Q1 2017+5.0%-1.6%-15.2%
Q4 2016-4.2%+4.0%-9.3%
Q3 2016+0.6%+1.8%+2.7%
Q2 2016+12.8%+14.0%+6.8%
Q1 2016+24.5%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015-25.6%
Q2 2015-5.7%
Q1 2015-1.5%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014-1.0%
Q2 2014-1.2%
Q1 2014-2.1%
Q4 2013-5.4%
Q3 2013-19.3%
Q2 2013+4.2%
Q1 2013+5.5%
Q4 2012+4.3%
Q3 2012-12.3%
Q2 2012-4.9%
Q1 2011+5.0%
Q1 2012+5.6%
Q4 2009+10.1%
Q4 2011+10.1%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011+11.0%
Q4 2010+11.0%
Q3 2010-1.6%
Q2 2010+1.9%
Q1 2010

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