NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Ambac reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, highlighting significant growth in Specialty P&C Insurance premiums and Insurance Distribution revenue, alongside a net loss primarily due to the adoption of discontinued operations accounting standards.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. reported a consolidated net loss of $(548) million for the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily driven by a $(570) million loss on disposal due to the adoption of discontinued operations accounting standards for its legacy business. Despite this, the company saw substantial growth in its P&C operating businesses, with total P&C premium production increasing by 88% to $265 million and Insurance Distribution revenue growing by 257% to $44 million.

  • Total P&C premium production grew to $265 million in Q4 2024, an 88% increase over Q4 2023.
  • Insurance Distribution ('Cirrata') total revenue increased by 257% to $44 million for the quarter.
  • The company reported a consolidated net loss of $(548) million, or $(10.23) per diluted share, primarily due to a $(570) million loss on disposal related to the legacy business sale.
  • Specialty P&C Insurance ('Everspan') combined ratio improved by 380 bps to 96.5% over Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$65.2M

Previous: $75.5M-13.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.12

Previous: $0.32-137.5%
Gross Premiums Written

$60M

Previous: $90.7M-33.9%
Net Premiums Written

-$2.61M

Previous: $36.7M-107.1%
Total Specialty P&C Insurance Production

$265M

Previous: $141M+88.0%
Combined Ratio

96.5%

Previous: 100.3%-3.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$5.06M

Previous: -$3.51M+244.2%
Adjusted EBITDA to Shareholders

$516K

Previous: -$3.83M+113.5%
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) to Shareholders

-$5.68M

Previous: -$4.5M-26.2%
Net Income

-$548M

Previous: -$15.6M-3414.5%
Operating Income

-$21.1M

Previous: -$15.3M-37.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$65.2M

Q4 2024-13.6%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 13 of 13 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $14.6M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance Distribution
    $14.6M+100.0%

Forward guidance

Ambac anticipates the completion of the Legacy sale in early to next quarter, positioning the company for continued growth in its P&C operating businesses and maintaining a strong pipeline for organic and strategic growth in 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Anticipated completion of the Legacy sale in early to next quarter, subject to Wisconsin regulatory approval.
  • Continued focus on growth strategy anchored in strategic acquisitions and organic growth.
  • Strong pipeline for organic and strategic growth in 2025.
  • Commitment to technology, efficiency, and talent to drive innovation and market expansion.
  • Positioned to enhance value for shareholders.

Headwinds

  • The close of the Legacy sale remains subject to Wisconsin regulatory approval.
  • Potential for actual results to differ materially from expected objectives due to various risk factors.
  • High degree of volatility in the price of AFG's common stock.
  • Risks associated with the Legacy Financial Guarantee business if the sale is not consummated.
  • Potential for adverse reactions or changes to business relationships resulting from the announcement or completion of the proposed Sale Transactions.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+9.0%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+6.4%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+5.8%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q4 2012+7.3%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2010

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