NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $175 million and adjusted earnings of $190 million, reduced debt and accrued interest by $1.8 billion, and saw specialty P&C Insurance premium production increase by 172%.

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. reported a strong fourth quarter with net income of $175 million and adjusted earnings of $190 million. The company reduced debt and accrued interest by $1.8 billion and experienced significant growth in its Specialty P&C Insurance business. Book value and adjusted book value per share also saw substantial increases.

  • Net income attributable to common stockholders was $175 million, or $3.86 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted earnings were $190 million, or $4.18 per diluted share.
  • Debt and accrued interest reduced by $1.8 billion.
  • Specialty P&C Insurance premium production increased 172% to $90 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$219M

Previous: $53M+313.4%
EPS (adj)

$4.18

Previous: -$0.16+2712.5%
Net Income

$175M

Previous: -$22M+895.5%
Operating Income

$173M

Previous: -$19M+1010.5%
Gross Profit

$17M

Previous: $53M-67.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$44M

Previous: $17M+158.8%
Total Assets

$7.97B

Previous: $12.3B-35.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$219M

Q4 2022+313.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 13 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $14.6M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance Distribution
    $14.6M+100.0%

Forward guidance

Ambac is well-positioned to progress its strategic priorities for 2023 and beyond, focusing on growing its Specialty P&C businesses and continuing to manage its legacy business.

Tailwinds

  • Settlement of legacy RMBS litigations for approximately $2 billion.
  • Resolution of HTA, the final remaining Puerto Rico exposure.
  • Significant reduction of financial leverage by redeeming and repurchasing $1.8 billion of debt and accrued interest.
  • 24% growth in book value in the quarter.
  • Continued material progress and growth of Specialty P&C businesses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+9.0%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+6.4%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+5.8%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q4 2012+7.3%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2010

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