NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss for Q3 2024, driven by transaction costs and acquisition-related interest expenses, but saw strong growth in P&C premium production and insurance distribution revenue.

Ambac Financial Group reported a net loss of $(28) million for the third quarter of 2024, or $(0.63) per diluted share. However, the company experienced significant growth in its P&C premium production, which increased by 86% year-over-year, and a 64% increase in insurance distribution revenue. The Specialty P&C Insurance segment also showed improvement with a better combined ratio.

  • Net loss of $(28) million or $(0.63) per diluted share; Adjusted net loss of $(19) million or $(0.46) per diluted share
  • Total P&C Premium Production increased 86% from Q3 2023, reaching $260 million.
  • Insurance Distribution revenue grew 64.0% over last year, totaling $24 million.
  • Specialty P&C Insurance combined ratio improved by 600 bps to 100.5%, with total revenue growing 158% to $40 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$114M

Previous: $74M+54.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.46

Previous: $2.00-123.0%
Gross Premiums Written

$115M

No prior period
Net Premiums Written

$32.8M

No prior period
Total Specialty P&C Insurance Production

$260M

No prior period
Combined Ratio

100.5%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA to Shareholders

$1.91M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) to Shareholders

-$1.65M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

Previous: $0.00
Net Income

-$28M

Previous: $66M-142.4%
Operating Income

-$26.5M

Previous: -$111M+76.1%
Gross Profit

$33.1M

Previous: $0.00
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$114M

Q3 2024+54.1%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 13 of 13 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $14.6M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance Distribution
    $14.6M+100.0%

Forward guidance

Ambac anticipates closing the sale of its Legacy Financial Guarantee business later this year or early next year and emerging as a pure-play P&C franchise in 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Distribution business is expected to exceed $1 billion of premium placed in 2025.
  • Beat acquisition has expanded the pipeline for new MGA opportunities.
  • Underwriting trend at Everspan is improving, with a goal of achieving an attractive return profile.
  • Acceleration of the $50 million share buy-back program has been approved.
  • Positive feedback from investors regarding the shift to a pure-play P&C franchise.

Headwinds

  • Dependence on gross premiums written as specialty program insurance companies earn premiums based on the portion of gross premiums written retained.
  • Insurance Distribution revenues are dependent on premium volume.
  • The Legacy Financial Guarantee Segment experienced a pre-tax loss of $9.4 million in the third quarter of 2024, primarily as a result incurred losses driven by a decline in discount rates.
  • Pretax income margin for Insurance Distribution decreased by 4980 bps
  • EBITDA margin for Insurance Distribution decreased by 1390 bps

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+9.0%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+6.4%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+5.8%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q4 2012+7.3%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2010

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