NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $2 million and adjusted earnings of $14 million, reflecting progress in strategic initiatives.

Ambac Financial Group reported a net income of $2 million and adjusted earnings of $14 million for Q1 2022. Specialty P&C insurance production increased by 71% year-over-year, and Puerto Rico principal and interest exposure was reduced by $450 million.

  • Net income attributable to common stockholders was $2 million, or $0.04 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted earnings were $14 million, or $0.30 per diluted share.
  • Specialty P&C insurance production totaled $69 million, up 71% from Q1 2021.
  • Puerto Rico principal and interest exposure was reduced by $450 million, or 25%, from December 31, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$119M

Previous: $129M-7.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.30

Previous: $0.59-49.2%
Gross Premiums Written

$6M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$2M

Previous: $17M-88.2%
Net Income

$2M

Previous: $17M-88.2%
Operating Income

$85M

Previous: $77M+10.4%
Gross Profit

$112M

Previous: $128M-12.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$60M

Previous: $23M+160.9%
Total Assets

$11.5B

Previous: $12.8B-10.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $4M+25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$119M

Q1 2022-7.8%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 13 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $11M total across 2 segments · Q1 2022

  • Insurance Distribution
    $9M
  • Specialty P&C Insurance
    $2M

Forward guidance

Ambac is focused on growing its specialty P&C distribution and underwriting platform and managing its legacy financial guaranty business.

Tailwinds

  • Continued growth in the Specialty P&C Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses.
  • Reduction of insured principal and interest exposure to Puerto Rico.
  • Pursuing full recovery on all RMBS cases.
  • Interest rate derivatives portfolio is positioned to benefit from rising interest rates.
  • Board of Directors authorized a $20 million share repurchase program.

Headwinds

  • Impact of a recent New York Court of Appeals decision on the recorded amount of estimated recoveries from RMBS representation and warranty litigation.
  • Decrease in book value per share and adjusted book value per share.
  • Decrease in net investment income.
  • Increase in losses and loss expenses.
  • The marginal increase in expenses was driven by growth in the Specialty P&C Insurance, Insurance Distribution and Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segments partially offset by lower Corporate & Other expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+9.0%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+6.4%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+5.8%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q4 2012+7.3%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2010

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro