NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $2 million and adjusted earnings of $14 million, reflecting progress in strategic initiatives.

Ambac Financial Group reported a net income of $2 million and adjusted earnings of $14 million for Q1 2022. Specialty P&C insurance production increased by 71% year-over-year, and Puerto Rico principal and interest exposure was reduced by $450 million.

  • Net income attributable to common stockholders was $2 million, or $0.04 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted earnings were $14 million, or $0.30 per diluted share.
  • Specialty P&C insurance production totaled $69 million, up 71% from Q1 2021.
  • Puerto Rico principal and interest exposure was reduced by $450 million, or 25%, from December 31, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$119M

Previous: $129M-7.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.30

Previous: $0.59-49.2%
Gross Premiums Written

$6M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$2M

Previous: $17M-88.2%
Net Income

$2M

Previous: $17M-88.2%
Operating Income

$85M

Previous: $77M+10.4%
Gross Profit

$112M

Previous: $128M-12.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$60M

Previous: $23M+160.9%
Total Assets

$11.5B

Previous: $12.8B-10.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $4M+25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$119M

Q1 2022-7.8%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 14 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $11M total across 2 segments · Q1 2022

  • Insurance Distribution
    $9M—
  • Specialty Property & Casualty
    $2M—

Forward guidance

Ambac is focused on growing its specialty P&C distribution and underwriting platform and managing its legacy financial guaranty business.

Tailwinds

  • Continued growth in the Specialty P&C Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses.
  • Reduction of insured principal and interest exposure to Puerto Rico.
  • Pursuing full recovery on all RMBS cases.
  • Interest rate derivatives portfolio is positioned to benefit from rising interest rates.
  • Board of Directors authorized a $20 million share repurchase program.

Headwinds

  • Impact of a recent New York Court of Appeals decision on the recorded amount of estimated recoveries from RMBS representation and warranty litigation.
  • Decrease in book value per share and adjusted book value per share.
  • Decrease in net investment income.
  • Increase in losses and loss expenses.
  • The marginal increase in expenses was driven by growth in the Specialty P&C Insurance, Insurance Distribution and Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segments partially offset by lower Corporate & Other expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2024———
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%——
Q4 2015+9.0%——
Q3 2015-6.2%——
Q2 2015+14.4%——
Q1 2015+6.4%——
Q4 2014-0.9%——
Q3 2014+5.8%——
Q2 2014-2.4%——
Q1 2014+0.5%——
Q4 2013-0.2%——
Q3 2013+7.3%——
Q4 2012+7.3%——
Q2 2013-1.4%——
Q1 2013———
Q3 2012———
Q2 2012———
Q1 2011———
Q1 2012———
Q4 2010———
Q4 2011———
Q3 2010———
Q3 2011———
Q2 2010———
Q2 2011———
Q1 2010———

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