NYSE$OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss and adjusted net loss, while specialty P&C businesses showed strong premium growth.

Ambac Financial Group reported a net loss of $(33) million, or $(0.73) per diluted share, and an adjusted net loss of $(14) million, or $(0.30) per diluted share. However, the Specialty P&C businesses, Everspan and Cirrata, experienced significant growth in gross written premium and premiums placed, respectively.

  • Net loss of $(33) million or $(0.73) per diluted share; Adjusted net loss of $(14) million or $(0.30) per diluted share.
  • Specialty P&C Insurance (Everspan) gross written premium increased by 116% to $52 million.
  • Insurance Distribution (Cirrata) premiums placed increased by 72% to $77 million.
  • Book Value per share and Adjusted Book Value per share were largely in line with the prior quarter, down 1% and 1%, respectively.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$58M

Previous: $119M-51.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.30

Previous: $0.30-200.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$33M

Previous: $2M-1750.0%
Net Income

-$33M

Previous: $2M-1750.0%
Operating Income

-$45M

Previous: $85M-152.9%
Gross Profit

$39M

Previous: $112M-65.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$38M

Previous: $60M-36.7%
Total Assets

$8.22B

Previous: $11.5B-28.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $5M-40.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Ambac · Revenue · Quarterly

$58M

Q1 2023-51.3%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 13 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ambac · $23.7M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Insurance Distribution
    $14.5M+61.1%
  • Specialty P&C Insurance
    $9.2M+360.0%

Forward guidance

Ambac expects that overall U.S. casualty insurance pricing is keeping up with loss cost trends in the lines they are writing and is supportive of strong growth in the program sector, which they expect will continue to provide a tailwind to their business this year.

Tailwinds

  • Strong performance in Specialty P&C businesses.
  • Significant growth in premium production for Everspan and Cirrata.
  • U.S. casualty insurance pricing keeping up with loss cost trends.
  • Supportive environment for growth in the program sector.
  • Expected continued tailwind to the business this year.

Headwinds

  • Net loss attributable to common stockholders.
  • Adjusted net loss reported.
  • Decrease in net premiums earned compared to the prior year.
  • Negative impact from lower discount rates on RMBS reserves.
  • Increase in general and administrative expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

24 / 51 earnings

Positive

+23.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-19.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%+26.9%+24.9%
Q3 2025+15.6%+9.6%-3.7%
Q2 2025-15.9%-0.8%+9.8%
Q1 2025-19.9%-3.7%-18.6%
Q4 2024-10.8%-22.4%-25.8%
Q3 2024+11.0%+6.3%+13.9%
Q1 2024+23.0%+23.8%-5.9%
Q4 2023+1.6%-2.9%-6.2%
Q3 2023+7.2%+17.1%+19.9%
Q2 2023-5.1%-1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-3.1%-7.1%
Q4 2022+5.4%+4.3%-7.3%
Q3 2022+0.7%+12.0%+21.7%
Q2 2022+15.5%+33.6%+31.3%
Q1 2022+6.2%+15.1%+51.7%
Q4 2021-6.5%-14.0%-38.3%
Q3 2021-4.0%-2.5%-7.9%
Q2 2021-3.7%-1.0%-3.7%
Q1 2021-11.4%-16.5%-9.2%
Q4 2020-1.1%+0.2%-1.2%
Q3 2020+12.2%+10.0%+36.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2020-16.4%-25.1%-15.3%
Q4 2019-1.6%-2.3%-40.8%
Q3 2019-0.1%-0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2019+0.1%+1.6%+1.8%
Q1 2019-8.5%-8.8%-20.0%
Q4 2018+3.6%+2.3%-7.9%
Q3 2018-10.1%-12.3%-22.3%
Q2 2018+5.8%+5.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018+8.3%+10.2%+17.5%
Q4 2017+0.1%-0.9%+3.4%
Q3 2017-13.9%-9.7%-3.2%
Q2 2017-0.5%-4.4%-10.7%
Q1 2017-5.6%-5.8%-7.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+1.8%-15.4%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.5%+35.6%
Q2 2016-4.1%-3.9%+1.3%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+9.0%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+6.4%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+5.8%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013+7.3%
Q4 2012+7.3%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2010

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