NYSE$ORC
Orchid Island Ca · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Announced results for the fourth quarter of 2022, demonstrating a net income of $34.9 million.
Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $34.9 million, or $0.95 per common share, for the fourth quarter of 2022. The company's book value per common share was $11.93 at the end of the quarter, and the total return was 8.67%.
- Net income for Q4 2022 was $34.9 million, or $0.95 per common share.
- Net interest income was $2.4 million, or $0.06 per common share.
- Total expenses were $5.9 million, or $0.16 per common share.
- Book value per common share was $11.93 at December 31, 2022.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly
$2.39M
Forward guidance
The company anticipates maintaining lower coupon holdings as a core position and has added higher coupons with new capital and pay-downs, while still maintaining a lower coupon bias. However, the absence of the largest of the traditional buyers of the asset class – banks, and since March of 2020, the Fed, may result in the sector recovering more slowly towards pre-pandemic levels, if it can do so at all.
Tailwinds
- Confidence grew that the Fed would need to pivot and start to reduce monetary policy later in 2023.
- Risk sentiment changed materially during the fourth quarter, and risk assets performed very well.
- The Agency RMBS market returns for 2022 were negative – down 11.9%. However, the sector posted positive returns for the fourth quarter of 2.1%, which was 110 basis points higher than comparable duration swaps.
- The sector’s rebound was likely triggered by the extreme spread levels reached in late October, and the rebound has continued into early 2023.
- The company's performance during the fourth quarter benefited from exposure to lower coupon, longer duration securities that were owned throughout 2022.
Headwinds
- Markets and the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) outlook for the economy, inflation and the path of monetary policy began to diverge.
- The Fed was so successful at convincing the market it would aggressively remove accommodation and slow inflation that the market began to look beyond this step in the process and instead focus on the ramifications of such policy removal – namely a slowing of the economy.
- The absence of the largest of the traditional buyers of the asset class – banks, and since March of 2020, the Fed, may result in the sector recovering more slowly towards pre-pandemic levels, if it can do so at all.
- Incoming data in February may indicate a change in market conditions.
- The company's interest income on the portfolio in the fourth quarter was down approximately $3.7 million from the third quarter of 2022.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
-1.0%
Avg return
Earnings day
-2.1%
Avg return
5 days after
-3.7%
Avg return
30 days after
44%
25 / 57 earnings
Positive
+7.5%
Q4 2023
Best reaction
-12.4%
Q4 2016
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +3.2% | +2.8% | -1.2% | |
| Q4 2025 | -5.7% | -7.4% | -10.0% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | -0.5% | -3.2% | |
| Q2 2025 | +1.2% | -2.1% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | +5.1% | +3.2% | -0.1% | |
| Q3 2024 | +1.4% | +0.9% | -1.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | +1.3% | +3.1% | +4.5% | |
| Q1 2024 | +1.0% | -3.5% | -0.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +7.5% | +3.4% | +8.5% | |
| Q3 2023 | -1.3% | +2.6% | +20.8% | |
| Q2 2023 | -4.0% | -6.1% | -14.5% | |
| Q1 2023 | -1.8% | -12.8% | -7.5% | |
| Q4 2022 | +1.7% | -0.6% | -8.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | -0.1% | +0.2% | +8.0% | |
| Q2 2022 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -19.9% | |
| Q1 2022 | -4.1% | +2.4% | +5.2% | |
| Q4 2021 | -4.8% | -11.2% | -5.9% | |
| Q3 2021 | -1.2% | -1.2% | -4.4% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.1% | -4.1% | +0.2% | |
| Q1 2021 | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.0% | |
| Q4 2020 | -2.1% | -1.0% | +2.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +1.2% | +3.3% | +6.8% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.2% | -2.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q1 2020 | -5.1% | -6.8% | +2.0% | |
| Q4 2019 | +3.2% | -2.2% | -59.4% | |
| Q3 2019 | -4.1% | -3.8% | -2.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +0.6% | +0.6% | -13.0% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | -4.6% | -4.9% | |
| Q4 2018 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -3.8% | |
| Q3 2018 | -3.8% | -6.9% | -2.2% | |
| Q2 2018 | -2.1% | -1.9% | -4.0% | |
| Q1 2018 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -1.9% | |
| Q4 2017 | -2.7% | +1.4% | -2.7% | |
| Q3 2017 | +2.7% | -0.9% | -1.6% | |
| Q2 2017 | +1.7% | +0.5% | +2.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | -3.8% | -2.6% | -8.3% | |
| Q4 2016 | -12.4% | -17.5% | -18.8% | |
| Q3 2016 | +3.3% | +3.8% | +2.9% | |
| Q2 2016 | +1.1% | +1.3% | -3.4% | |
| Q1 2016 | -10.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +3.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -10.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +3.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -6.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +0.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.3% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +1.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +1.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | -0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | — | — | — |
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