NYSE$ORC

Orchid Island Ca · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Orchid Island Capital reported first quarter 2023 results, which included a net income of $3.5 million and a total return of 0.84%.

Orchid Island Capital announced its first quarter 2023 results, reporting a net income of $3.5 million, or $0.09 per common share. The company's book value per common share was $11.55 at the end of the quarter. The total return for the quarter was 0.84%, which included a dividend of $0.48 per common share.

  • Net income for the first quarter was $3.5 million, or $0.09 per common share.
  • Net interest expense was $4.2 million, or $0.11 per common share.
  • Net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments were $12.7 million, or $0.33 per common share.
  • The company maintained a liquidity position of $197.0 million in cash and cash equivalents and unpledged RMBS.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$4.21M

Previous: $39.2M-110.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: -$4.20+102.1%
Book value per share

$11.55

No prior period
Constant prepayment rate

4.0%

Previous: 10.7%-62.6%
Net Income

$3.5M

Previous: -$149M+102.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$197M

Previous: $427M-53.9%
Total Assets

$4.27B

Previous: $5.19B-17.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$409K

Previous: $162K+152.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly

-$4.21M

Q1 2023-110.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 13 quarters(31%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Orchid Island Capital intends to maintain its lower coupon bias as they believe they offer the best total return potential as they approach the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle and eventual pivot towards easing. To the extent they are able to raise new capital, they desire to do so, and believe the return opportunities will be very attractive, even if performance of the sector may be choppy in the near term.

Tailwinds

  • Lower coupon securities offer attractive total return opportunities.
  • The company has been able to manage risk to higher rates.
  • The company maintains an economic leverage ratio on the low end of its typical range.
  • The company believes the return opportunities will be very attractive if they are able to raise new capital.
  • The company intends to maintain its lower coupon bias.

Headwinds

  • The economy and the outlook for monetary policy were very volatile during the quarter.
  • Extreme volatility in the rates market.
  • FDIC needs to liquidate approximately $114 billion of securities held by two banks.
  • Agency RMBS spreads to comparable duration U.S. treasuries have widened.
  • Liquidation sales by the FDIC have just begun and will last several months, so the ultimate impact on the market remains to be seen.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

25 / 57 earnings

Positive

+7.5%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-12.4%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.2%+2.8%-1.2%
Q4 2025-5.7%-7.4%-10.0%
Q3 2025+2.7%-0.5%-3.2%
Q2 2025+1.2%-2.1%-2.3%
Q1 2025+5.1%+3.2%-0.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%+0.9%-1.4%
Q2 2024+1.3%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2024+1.0%-3.5%-0.7%
Q4 2023+7.5%+3.4%+8.5%
Q3 2023-1.3%+2.6%+20.8%
Q2 2023-4.0%-6.1%-14.5%
Q1 2023-1.8%-12.8%-7.5%
Q4 2022+1.7%-0.6%-8.9%
Q3 2022-0.1%+0.2%+8.0%
Q2 2022-1.9%-1.9%-19.9%
Q1 2022-4.1%+2.4%+5.2%
Q4 2021-4.8%-11.2%-5.9%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.2%-4.4%
Q2 2021-3.1%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.4%-1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2020-2.1%-1.0%+2.4%
Q3 2020+1.2%+3.3%+6.8%
Q2 2020+1.2%-2.2%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%-6.8%+2.0%
Q4 2019+3.2%-2.2%-59.4%
Q3 2019-4.1%-3.8%-2.9%
Q2 2019+0.6%+0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2019-1.0%-4.6%-4.9%
Q4 2018-0.6%-1.1%-3.8%
Q3 2018-3.8%-6.9%-2.2%
Q2 2018-2.1%-1.9%-4.0%
Q1 2018-2.9%-6.6%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.4%-2.7%
Q3 2017+2.7%-0.9%-1.6%
Q2 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.4%
Q1 2017-3.8%-2.6%-8.3%
Q4 2016-12.4%-17.5%-18.8%
Q3 2016+3.3%+3.8%+2.9%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%-3.4%
Q1 2016-10.6%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2015-10.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-0.4%
Q4 2014-6.5%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-0.9%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.2%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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