NYSE$ORC
Orchid Island Ca · Q4 2019 earnings
Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Orchid Island Capital reported net income for Q4 2019, driven by net interest income and net portfolio gains.
Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $18.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2019, a significant improvement compared to the net loss of $26.4 million in the same period of 2018. The company benefited from net interest income of $17.5 million and net portfolio gains of $3.8 million. The allocation to the PT RMBS portfolio increased to approximately 80%.
- Net income was $18.6 million, or $0.29 per common share.
- Net interest income was $17.5 million, or $0.28 per common share.
- Net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments were $3.8 million, or $0.06 per share.
- Book value per share was $6.27 at the end of the quarter.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly
$17.5M
Forward guidance
The company expects that performance of Agency RMBS for the balance of the first quarter of 2020 and possibly thereafter will likely hinge on developments with the coronavirus in China and elsewhere and the extent it impacts growth prospects, and therefore interest rate levels. The company has continued to take steps to lower the exposure of our portfolio to higher prepayments, but with a slightly different focus given the exposure of our portfolio to a potential rate sell-off and duration extension should the coronavirus crisis abate.
Tailwinds
- The company has adjusted the coupon selection to even lower coupon securities.
- The company has changed product selection to fewer 30-year securities and more 15-year securities.
- The company has reduced the concentration of high quality securities where the value would erode if interest rates were to increase and prepayment expectations drop.
- The company is repositioning the portfolio in light of the new rate environment and elevated levels of refinancing activity.
- The company lowered the weighted average net coupon and upgraded the call protection of the securities they owned.
Headwinds
- The extent and duration of the potential coronavirus pandemic remain unknown, and therefore the effect on global growth remains unknown as well.
- Agency RMBS spreads to comparable duration U.S. Treasuries and interest rate swaps have recently widened.
- Interest rates decreased back to the levels seen in September 2019, and prepayment fears exceeded even the levels of last fall.
- The markets encountered a significant risk-off movement not long after the new year started when a coronavirus outbreak occurred in China.
- The mortgage bankers association refinance index also increased to levels above those seen last fall and in February 2020 reached the highest level since early 2013.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019
-1.0%
Avg return
Earnings day
-2.1%
Avg return
5 days after
-3.7%
Avg return
30 days after
44%
25 / 57 earnings
Positive
+7.5%
Q4 2023
Best reaction
-12.4%
Q4 2016
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +3.2% | +2.8% | -1.2% | |
| Q4 2025 | -5.7% | -7.4% | -10.0% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | -0.5% | -3.2% | |
| Q2 2025 | +1.2% | -2.1% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | +5.1% | +3.2% | -0.1% | |
| Q3 2024 | +1.4% | +0.9% | -1.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | +1.3% | +3.1% | +4.5% | |
| Q1 2024 | +1.0% | -3.5% | -0.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +7.5% | +3.4% | +8.5% | |
| Q3 2023 | -1.3% | +2.6% | +20.8% | |
| Q2 2023 | -4.0% | -6.1% | -14.5% | |
| Q1 2023 | -1.8% | -12.8% | -7.5% | |
| Q4 2022 | +1.7% | -0.6% | -8.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | -0.1% | +0.2% | +8.0% | |
| Q2 2022 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -19.9% | |
| Q1 2022 | -4.1% | +2.4% | +5.2% | |
| Q4 2021 | -4.8% | -11.2% | -5.9% | |
| Q3 2021 | -1.2% | -1.2% | -4.4% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.1% | -4.1% | +0.2% | |
| Q1 2021 | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.0% | |
| Q4 2020 | -2.1% | -1.0% | +2.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +1.2% | +3.3% | +6.8% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.2% | -2.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q1 2020 | -5.1% | -6.8% | +2.0% | |
| Q4 2019 | +3.2% | -2.2% | -59.4% | |
| Q3 2019 | -4.1% | -3.8% | -2.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +0.6% | +0.6% | -13.0% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | -4.6% | -4.9% | |
| Q4 2018 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -3.8% | |
| Q3 2018 | -3.8% | -6.9% | -2.2% | |
| Q2 2018 | -2.1% | -1.9% | -4.0% | |
| Q1 2018 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -1.9% | |
| Q4 2017 | -2.7% | +1.4% | -2.7% | |
| Q3 2017 | +2.7% | -0.9% | -1.6% | |
| Q2 2017 | +1.7% | +0.5% | +2.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | -3.8% | -2.6% | -8.3% | |
| Q4 2016 | -12.4% | -17.5% | -18.8% | |
| Q3 2016 | +3.3% | +3.8% | +2.9% | |
| Q2 2016 | +1.1% | +1.3% | -3.4% | |
| Q1 2016 | -10.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +3.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -10.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +3.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -6.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +0.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.3% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +1.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +1.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | -0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | — | — | — |
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