NYSE$ORC

Orchid Island Ca · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter 2023 results, reporting net income of $10.2 million and declaring dividends of $0.48 per common share.

Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $10.2 million, or $0.25 per common share, for the second quarter of 2023. The company increased its Agency RMBS portfolio and maintained a liquidity position of $204.1 million. They raised approximately $48 million of new capital in the second quarter and deployed the proceeds into higher coupon, low pay-up specified pools and hedged these positions predominantly with swaps.

  • Net income was $10.2 million, or $0.25 per common share.
  • Net realized and unrealized gains of $23.8 million on RMBS and derivative instruments.
  • Dividends declared and paid were $0.48 per common share.
  • Book value per common share was $11.16 at June 30, 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$8.76M

Previous: $27.1M-132.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.34

Previous: -$1.70+80.0%
Constant prepayment rate

5.3%

No prior period
Net Income

$10.2M

Previous: -$60.1M+117.0%
Operating Income

$5.4M

Previous: -$55.2M+109.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$204M

Previous: $283M-28.0%
Total Assets

$4.73B

Previous: $4.47B+5.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$243K

Previous: $242K+0.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly

-$8.76M

Q2 2023-132.3%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 13 quarters(31%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company anticipates current interest rate levels and curve shape are at or near the extremes they will experience for the cycle. They do not anticipate changes to their strategy other than possibly adding current income securities hedged with interest rate swaps to increase net interest income.

Tailwinds

  • FDIC liquidation sales of Agency RMBS seized from failed banks have gone well and are nearing an end, far sooner than originally anticipated.
  • Anticipate current interest rate levels and curve shape are at or near the extremes we will experience for the cycle.
  • Possibly adding current income securities hedged with interest rate swaps to increase our net interest income, assuming we can add additional capital at attractive levels.
  • Continue to hold lower coupon bias securities as we believe these securities still offer superior total return potential over new origination, higher coupon securities.
  • Hedge positions allow us to earn approximately 100 basis points of marginal net interest income on the new securities.

Headwinds

  • Market expectations were now in sync with Fed rhetoric that funding rates would be higher and for far longer than previously expected.
  • These developments were not good for the Agency RMBS market as the spread between the Agency RMBS current coupon and the 5-year U.S. Treasury reached approximately 187.5 bps on May 26, 2023.
  • Markets and the Fed are closely focused on incoming economic data as it pertains to inflation and the labor markets.
  • Market performance – for all asset classes – will likely be dominated by these developments and their implications for monetary policy going forward.
  • Challenging for levered Agency RMBS investors.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

25 / 57 earnings

Positive

+7.5%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-12.4%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.2%+2.8%-1.2%
Q4 2025-5.7%-7.4%-10.0%
Q3 2025+2.7%-0.5%-3.2%
Q2 2025+1.2%-2.1%-2.3%
Q1 2025+5.1%+3.2%-0.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%+0.9%-1.4%
Q2 2024+1.3%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2024+1.0%-3.5%-0.7%
Q4 2023+7.5%+3.4%+8.5%
Q3 2023-1.3%+2.6%+20.8%
Q2 2023-4.0%-6.1%-14.5%
Q1 2023-1.8%-12.8%-7.5%
Q4 2022+1.7%-0.6%-8.9%
Q3 2022-0.1%+0.2%+8.0%
Q2 2022-1.9%-1.9%-19.9%
Q1 2022-4.1%+2.4%+5.2%
Q4 2021-4.8%-11.2%-5.9%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.2%-4.4%
Q2 2021-3.1%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.4%-1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2020-2.1%-1.0%+2.4%
Q3 2020+1.2%+3.3%+6.8%
Q2 2020+1.2%-2.2%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%-6.8%+2.0%
Q4 2019+3.2%-2.2%-59.4%
Q3 2019-4.1%-3.8%-2.9%
Q2 2019+0.6%+0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2019-1.0%-4.6%-4.9%
Q4 2018-0.6%-1.1%-3.8%
Q3 2018-3.8%-6.9%-2.2%
Q2 2018-2.1%-1.9%-4.0%
Q1 2018-2.9%-6.6%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.4%-2.7%
Q3 2017+2.7%-0.9%-1.6%
Q2 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.4%
Q1 2017-3.8%-2.6%-8.3%
Q4 2016-12.4%-17.5%-18.8%
Q3 2016+3.3%+3.8%+2.9%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%-3.4%
Q1 2016-10.6%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2015-10.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-0.4%
Q4 2014-6.5%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-0.9%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.2%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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