NYSE$ORC

Orchid Island Ca · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Orchid Island Capital reported a net loss for Q4 2021 due to net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments, despite an increase in net interest income.

Orchid Island Capital reported a net loss of $44.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2021, driven by net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments. However, net interest income increased, and the company maintained a strong liquidity position.

  • Reported a net loss of $44.6 million, or $0.27 per common share.
  • Net interest income was $42.4 million, or $0.25 per common share.
  • Declared and paid total dividends of $0.195 per common share for the quarter.
  • Book value per share was $4.34 at the end of the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$42.4M

Previous: $23.9M+77.5%
EPS (adj)

-$1.35

Previous: $1.15-217.4%
Constant prepayment rate

11.4%

Previous: 20.1%-43.3%
Leverage ratio

8.2

Previous: 8.8-6.8%
Avg. yield on RMBS

2.9%

Previous: 2.9%+2.8%
Avg. cost of funds

0.1%

Previous: 0.2%-39.1%
Avg. economic cost of funds

0.7%

No prior period
Interest rate spread

2.8%

No prior period
Economic interest rate spread

2.2%

No prior period
Net Income

-$44.6M

Previous: $16.5M-370.4%
Operating Income

-$40.2M

Previous: $19.3M-308.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$450M

Previous: $300M+50.4%
Total Assets

$7.07B

Previous: $4.06B+74.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$772K

Previous: $244K+216.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly

$42.4M

Q4 2021+77.5%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company is comfortable with its current positioning and believes that its specified pool holdings will perform well as the market transitions from a TBA roll-dominated market.

Tailwinds

  • Portfolio remains concentrated in specified pools.
  • Vast majority of losses are unrealized.
  • Liquidity management practices allow absorption of mark-to-market losses.
  • Carry of assets yields are comparable to dollar rolls.
  • Specified pools will enter Bloomberg MBS indices, adding demand.

Headwinds

  • Material mark-to-market losses incurred on specified pools.
  • Widening in specs exacerbated by dollar roll specialness.
  • Transition from TBA roll-dominated market taking longer to occur.
  • Increased conforming loan limit has degraded the convexity of current Agency RMBS production.
  • Markets were particularly challenging for Agency RMBS securities.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

25 / 57 earnings

Positive

+7.5%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-12.4%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.2%+2.8%-1.2%
Q4 2025-5.7%-7.4%-10.0%
Q3 2025+2.7%-0.5%-3.2%
Q2 2025+1.2%-2.1%-2.3%
Q1 2025+5.1%+3.2%-0.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%+0.9%-1.4%
Q2 2024+1.3%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2024+1.0%-3.5%-0.7%
Q4 2023+7.5%+3.4%+8.5%
Q3 2023-1.3%+2.6%+20.8%
Q2 2023-4.0%-6.1%-14.5%
Q1 2023-1.8%-12.8%-7.5%
Q4 2022+1.7%-0.6%-8.9%
Q3 2022-0.1%+0.2%+8.0%
Q2 2022-1.9%-1.9%-19.9%
Q1 2022-4.1%+2.4%+5.2%
Q4 2021-4.8%-11.2%-5.9%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.2%-4.4%
Q2 2021-3.1%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.4%-1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2020-2.1%-1.0%+2.4%
Q3 2020+1.2%+3.3%+6.8%
Q2 2020+1.2%-2.2%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%-6.8%+2.0%
Q4 2019+3.2%-2.2%-59.4%
Q3 2019-4.1%-3.8%-2.9%
Q2 2019+0.6%+0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2019-1.0%-4.6%-4.9%
Q4 2018-0.6%-1.1%-3.8%
Q3 2018-3.8%-6.9%-2.2%
Q2 2018-2.1%-1.9%-4.0%
Q1 2018-2.9%-6.6%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.4%-2.7%
Q3 2017+2.7%-0.9%-1.6%
Q2 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.4%
Q1 2017-3.8%-2.6%-8.3%
Q4 2016-12.4%-17.5%-18.8%
Q3 2016+3.3%+3.8%+2.9%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%-3.4%
Q1 2016-10.6%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2015-10.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-0.4%
Q4 2014-6.5%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-0.9%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.2%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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