NYSE$ORC

Orchid Island Ca · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Orchid Island Capital reported strong Q4 2020 results, driven by strategic portfolio adjustments and effective use of the TBA dollar roll market.

Orchid Island Capital announced net income of $16.5 million for Q4 2020. The company focused on maximizing returns by shifting its portfolio into lower coupon securities and leveraging the TBA dollar roll market. They also raised $36.1 million through an at-the-market program, which was accretive to earnings.

  • Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $16.5 million, or $0.23 per common share, for Q4 2020.
  • The company generated a 4.0% economic gain on common equity for the quarter.
  • The portfolio was strategically shifted into lower coupon securities and shorter maturity securities to mitigate prepayment risks.
  • Orchid Island Capital expanded its use of the TBA dollar roll market to enhance returns.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$23.9M

Previous: $17.5M+36.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.15

Previous: $1.45-20.7%
Constant prepayment rate

20.1%

Previous: 16.0%+25.6%
Leverage ratio

8.8

Previous: 8.8+0.0%
Avg. yield on RMBS

2.9%

No prior period
Avg. cost of funds

0.2%

No prior period
Net Income

$16.5M

Previous: $18.6M-11.5%
Operating Income

$19.3M

Previous: $21.3M-9.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$300M

Previous: $279M+7.5%
Total Assets

$4.06B

Previous: $3.88B+4.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$244K

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly

$23.9M

Q4 2020+36.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

While no explicit forward guidance was given the report indicates the company will likely continue to focus on managing prepayment risks on RMBS, and taking advantage of the TBA dollar roll market.

Tailwinds

  • Focus on maximizing returns on the portfolio by reducing the income draining effects of prepayments on premium RMBS.
  • Shifting the portfolio into lower coupon securities and in some cases shorter maturity securities.
  • Increased use of the very attractive financing offered by the TBA dollar roll market.
  • Continued low financing in the traditional repo markets.
  • Ability to raise additional capital from the at-the-market program at attractive prices relative to book value and accretive to earnings.

Headwinds

  • Compression of the spread between mortgage rates available to borrowers and rates on an interpolated par priced mortgage backed security.
  • Increase of prepayment rate in the fourth quarter was 16.7 CPR, a 2.4 CPR increase over the third quarter of 2020.
  • Decline in the yield on average MBS declined from 3.18% in the third quarter to 2.85% for the fourth quarter.
  • Decline in repurchase agreement borrowing costs declined from 0.25% for the third quarter to 0.23% for the fourth quarter.
  • Decline in net interest spread declined from 2.93% to 2.62% in the fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

25 / 57 earnings

Positive

+7.5%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-12.4%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.2%+2.8%-1.2%
Q4 2025-5.7%-7.4%-10.0%
Q3 2025+2.7%-0.5%-3.2%
Q2 2025+1.2%-2.1%-2.3%
Q1 2025+5.1%+3.2%-0.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%+0.9%-1.4%
Q2 2024+1.3%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2024+1.0%-3.5%-0.7%
Q4 2023+7.5%+3.4%+8.5%
Q3 2023-1.3%+2.6%+20.8%
Q2 2023-4.0%-6.1%-14.5%
Q1 2023-1.8%-12.8%-7.5%
Q4 2022+1.7%-0.6%-8.9%
Q3 2022-0.1%+0.2%+8.0%
Q2 2022-1.9%-1.9%-19.9%
Q1 2022-4.1%+2.4%+5.2%
Q4 2021-4.8%-11.2%-5.9%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.2%-4.4%
Q2 2021-3.1%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.4%-1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2020-2.1%-1.0%+2.4%
Q3 2020+1.2%+3.3%+6.8%
Q2 2020+1.2%-2.2%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%-6.8%+2.0%
Q4 2019+3.2%-2.2%-59.4%
Q3 2019-4.1%-3.8%-2.9%
Q2 2019+0.6%+0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2019-1.0%-4.6%-4.9%
Q4 2018-0.6%-1.1%-3.8%
Q3 2018-3.8%-6.9%-2.2%
Q2 2018-2.1%-1.9%-4.0%
Q1 2018-2.9%-6.6%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.4%-2.7%
Q3 2017+2.7%-0.9%-1.6%
Q2 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.4%
Q1 2017-3.8%-2.6%-8.3%
Q4 2016-12.4%-17.5%-18.8%
Q3 2016+3.3%+3.8%+2.9%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%-3.4%
Q1 2016-10.6%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2015-10.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-0.4%
Q4 2014-6.5%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-0.9%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.2%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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