NYSE$ORC

Orchid Island Ca · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth quarter 2023 results, highlighting a pivotal period with increased book value and strategic portfolio adjustments amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $27.1 million for Q4 2023, with a book value per common share of $9.10. The company strategically reduced leverage and adjusted its portfolio in response to market volatility, which led to an increase in book value and a total return of 6.05% for the quarter.

  • Net income for the fourth quarter was $27.1 million, or $0.52 per common share.
  • Total dividends declared and paid for the fourth quarter were $0.36 per common share.
  • Book value per common share stood at $9.10 as of December 31, 2023.
  • The company maintained a strong liquidity position with $200.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and unpledged securities.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$2.79M

Previous: $2.39M-216.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.13

Previous: $0.95-113.7%
Net Income

$27.1M

Previous: $34.9M-22.3%
Operating Income

-$2.8M

Previous: $29M-109.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$259K

Previous: $133K+94.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Orchid Island · Revenue · Quarterly

-$2.79M

Q4 2023-216.8%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 13 quarters(31%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Orchid Island Capital anticipates that the steps taken in 2023, including reducing exposure to lower coupon securities and implementing a hedging strategy, will position the company favorably in 2024. They believe that earnings can increase if Fed rate cuts lower funding costs.

Tailwinds

  • Reduced exposure to lower coupon securities.
  • Increased weighted average coupon of the portfolio.
  • Hedge strategy has protected funding costs.
  • Economic interest spread has increased.
  • Book value pressure appears to have abated.

Headwinds

  • Market might be getting too optimistic on the magnitude and timing of rate cuts in 2024.
  • Mortgages have widened to comparable duration rates or swaps slightly.
  • Turbulent weeks at the beginning of the quarter as rates moved higher.
  • Mortgage performance was quite poor.
  • Market has since reversed again and market pricing of Fed rates cuts in 2024 has both declined and been pushed further into the future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

25 / 57 earnings

Positive

+7.5%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-12.4%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.2%+2.8%-1.2%
Q4 2025-5.7%-7.4%-10.0%
Q3 2025+2.7%-0.5%-3.2%
Q2 2025+1.2%-2.1%-2.3%
Q1 2025+5.1%+3.2%-0.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%+0.9%-1.4%
Q2 2024+1.3%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2024+1.0%-3.5%-0.7%
Q4 2023+7.5%+3.4%+8.5%
Q3 2023-1.3%+2.6%+20.8%
Q2 2023-4.0%-6.1%-14.5%
Q1 2023-1.8%-12.8%-7.5%
Q4 2022+1.7%-0.6%-8.9%
Q3 2022-0.1%+0.2%+8.0%
Q2 2022-1.9%-1.9%-19.9%
Q1 2022-4.1%+2.4%+5.2%
Q4 2021-4.8%-11.2%-5.9%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.2%-4.4%
Q2 2021-3.1%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.4%-1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2020-2.1%-1.0%+2.4%
Q3 2020+1.2%+3.3%+6.8%
Q2 2020+1.2%-2.2%+1.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%-6.8%+2.0%
Q4 2019+3.2%-2.2%-59.4%
Q3 2019-4.1%-3.8%-2.9%
Q2 2019+0.6%+0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2019-1.0%-4.6%-4.9%
Q4 2018-0.6%-1.1%-3.8%
Q3 2018-3.8%-6.9%-2.2%
Q2 2018-2.1%-1.9%-4.0%
Q1 2018-2.9%-6.6%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.4%-2.7%
Q3 2017+2.7%-0.9%-1.6%
Q2 2017+1.7%+0.5%+2.4%
Q1 2017-3.8%-2.6%-8.3%
Q4 2016-12.4%-17.5%-18.8%
Q3 2016+3.3%+3.8%+2.9%
Q2 2016+1.1%+1.3%-3.4%
Q1 2016-10.6%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2015-10.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-0.4%
Q4 2014-6.5%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-0.9%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.2%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-3.3%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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