NYSE$CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Chipotle's Q3 2022 performance showcased strong brand resilience and value proposition amidst economic challenges, driven by comparable restaurant sales increase and margin expansion.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported a 13.7% increase in total revenue, reaching $2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2022. Comparable restaurant sales increased by 7.6%, and diluted earnings per share rose to $9.20, marking a 28.1% increase year over year.

  • Total revenue increased by 13.7% to $2.2 billion.
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased by 7.6%.
  • In-restaurant sales increased by 22.1%, with digital sales accounting for 37.2% of food and beverage revenue.
  • Diluted earnings per share increased by 28.1% to $9.20.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.22B

Previous: $1.95B+13.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.19

Previous: $0.14+35.7%
Comparable sales change

7.6%

Previous: 15.1%-49.7%
Net restaurant openings

43

Previous: 41+4.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$336M

Previous: -$321M-4.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$78.4M

Previous: -$116M+32.5%
Net Income

$257M

Previous: $204M+25.8%
Operating Income

$336M

Previous: $240M+40.3%
Gross Profit

$1B

Previous: $858M+16.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$367M

Previous: $721M-49.2%
Total Assets

$6.82B

Previous: $6.63B+2.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$25.2M

Previous: $36.1M-30.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Chipotle · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.22B

Q3 2022+13.7%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Chipotle · $17.8M total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Delivery service
    $17.8M-10.4%

Forward guidance

Chipotle anticipates fourth quarter comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digits and between 235 to 250 new restaurant openings for 2022. For 2023, the company anticipates 255 to 285 new restaurant openings.

Tailwinds

  • Fourth quarter comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digits
  • Between 235 to 250 new restaurant openings (including 10 to 15 relocations to add a Chipotlane)
  • New restaurant formats continue to perform very well.
  • New restaurant formats are helping enhance guest access and convenience.
  • New restaurant formats are helping increase new restaurant sales, margins, and returns.

Headwinds

  • Anticipates construction, permit and material supply delays don’t worsen.
  • Increasing wage inflation and the competitive labor market.
  • Increasing supply costs (including beef, avocados and packaging).
  • The uncertainty of our ability to achieve expected levels of comparable restaurant sales due to factors such as changes in consumers' perceptions of our brand.
  • Decreased consumer spending (including as a result of the increase in inflation, fear of possible recession and higher gas prices).

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+26.9%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.4%-2.1%-3.3%
Q4 2025+1.9%+1.1%-9.7%
Q3 2025-9.7%-20.2%-13.2%
Q2 2025-13.3%-15.9%-17.3%
Q1 2025+1.6%+3.9%+3.8%
Q4 2024-2.6%-2.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024-8.0%-3.3%+2.4%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.0%+2.2%
Q1 2024+6.8%+10.1%+8.1%
Q4 2023+7.9%+6.8%+8.9%
Q3 2023+2.5%+5.4%+20.5%
Q2 2023-10.0%-6.2%-10.3%
Q1 2023+11.9%+15.1%+14.5%
Q4 2022-3.7%-6.8%-8.8%
Q3 2022-4.5%-2.6%-2.4%
Q2 2022+13.6%+17.7%+25.2%
Q1 2022-2.7%-4.0%-11.5%
Q4 2021+10.7%+7.5%+1.1%
Q3 2021-1.7%-4.1%-3.7%
Q2 2021+13.2%+18.0%+20.6%
Q1 2021-3.4%-4.0%-13.2%
Q4 2020-0.6%-0.1%-10.5%
Q3 2020-3.6%-2.7%-4.1%
Q2 2020-3.6%-1.7%+7.7%
Q1 2020+9.2%+9.1%+27.0%
Q4 2019-1.6%-0.4%-16.1%
Q3 2019-7.5%-7.5%-9.2%
Q2 2019+4.8%+5.0%+10.3%
Q1 2019-3.5%-3.5%-5.7%
Q4 2018+11.3%+14.6%+17.0%
Q3 2018+6.2%+11.8%+14.1%
Q2 2018+4.7%-4.0%+15.3%
Q1 2018+26.9%+27.1%+28.8%
Q4 2017-9.5%-14.9%+7.2%
Q3 2017-13.6%-13.8%-12.2%
Q2 2017+0.1%+3.1%-11.2%
Q1 2017+3.0%+1.2%+2.7%
Q4 2016-3.8%-5.1%-1.0%
Q3 2016-11.0%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2016+5.5%+2.7%-7.4%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015-2.3%
Q3 2015-7.4%
Q2 2015+7.1%
Q1 2015-6.7%
Q4 2014-5.1%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014+11.4%
Q1 2014-8.3%
Q4 2013+13.9%
Q3 2013+16.3%
Q2 2013+8.8%
Q1 2013+7.6%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q4 2012+4.0%
Q3 2012-16.2%
Q2 2012-20.4%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011+11.2%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q1 2011+0.7%
Q4 2008-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010+14.5%
Q3 2009+14.5%
Q2 2009-0.3%
Q2 2010-0.3%
Q4 2009-0.3%

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