NYSE$CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Chipotle's first quarter results for 2023 were announced, featuring a 93.3% increase in operating income and a 10.9% rise in comparable restaurant sales, driven by margin expansion.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported strong first quarter 2023 results, with total revenue increasing by 17.2% to $2.4 billion and comparable restaurant sales up by 10.9%. Diluted earnings per share reached $10.50, reflecting an 84.2% increase compared to the prior year. The company opened 41 new restaurants, including 34 Chipotlanes, and saw its operating margin increase to 15.5%.

  • Total revenue increased 17.2% to $2.4 billion.
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased 10.9%.
  • In-restaurant sales increased 22.9%, while digital sales represented 39.3% of food and beverage revenue.
  • Diluted earnings per share was $10.50, an 84.2% increase.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.37B

Previous: $2.02B+17.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.21

Previous: $0.11+90.9%
Comparable sales change

10.9%

Previous: 9.0%+21.1%
Net restaurant openings

41

Previous: 51-19.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$120M

Previous: -$96.2M-25.2%
Free Cash Flow

$171M

Previous: $62.1M+175.7%
Net Income

$292M

Previous: $158M+84.2%
Operating Income

$368M

Previous: $190M+93.3%
Gross Profit

$1.09B

Previous: $862M+26.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$410M

Previous: $616M-33.5%
Total Assets

$7.05B

Previous: $6.47B+9.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$20.1M

Previous: $23.6M-14.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Chipotle · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.37B

Q1 2023+17.2%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Chipotle · $17.6M total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • Delivery service
    $17.6M-18.6%

Forward guidance

For 2023, management anticipates second quarter and full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range, between 255 to 285 new restaurant openings and an estimated underlying effective full year tax rate between 25% and 27% before discrete items.

Tailwinds

  • Comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range for the second quarter and full year.
  • 255 to 285 new restaurant openings are expected.
  • Includes 10 to 15 relocations to add a Chipotlane.
  • An estimated underlying effective full year tax rate between 25% and 27% before discrete items.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes utility, construction, permit and material supply delays do not worsen.
  • Uncertainty regarding the resurgence of COVID-19 infections and its ultimate impact on our business.
  • Increasing wage inflation and the competitive labor market, which impacts our ability to attract and retain qualified employees and has resulted in occasional staffing shortages.
  • Increasing supply costs (including beef, avocados and packaging).
  • The uncertainty of our ability to achieve expected levels of comparable restaurant sales due to factors such as changes in consumers' perceptions of our brand.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+26.9%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.4%-2.1%-3.3%
Q4 2025+1.9%+1.1%-9.7%
Q3 2025-9.7%-20.2%-13.2%
Q2 2025-13.3%-15.9%-17.3%
Q1 2025+1.6%+3.9%+3.8%
Q4 2024-2.6%-2.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024-8.0%-3.3%+2.4%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.0%+2.2%
Q1 2024+6.8%+10.1%+8.1%
Q4 2023+7.9%+6.8%+8.9%
Q3 2023+2.5%+5.4%+20.5%
Q2 2023-10.0%-6.2%-10.3%
Q1 2023+11.9%+15.1%+14.5%
Q4 2022-3.7%-6.8%-8.8%
Q3 2022-4.5%-2.6%-2.4%
Q2 2022+13.6%+17.7%+25.2%
Q1 2022-2.7%-4.0%-11.5%
Q4 2021+10.7%+7.5%+1.1%
Q3 2021-1.7%-4.1%-3.7%
Q2 2021+13.2%+18.0%+20.6%
Q1 2021-3.4%-4.0%-13.2%
Q4 2020-0.6%-0.1%-10.5%
Q3 2020-3.6%-2.7%-4.1%
Q2 2020-3.6%-1.7%+7.7%
Q1 2020+9.2%+9.1%+27.0%
Q4 2019-1.6%-0.4%-16.1%
Q3 2019-7.5%-7.5%-9.2%
Q2 2019+4.8%+5.0%+10.3%
Q1 2019-3.5%-3.5%-5.7%
Q4 2018+11.3%+14.6%+17.0%
Q3 2018+6.2%+11.8%+14.1%
Q2 2018+4.7%-4.0%+15.3%
Q1 2018+26.9%+27.1%+28.8%
Q4 2017-9.5%-14.9%+7.2%
Q3 2017-13.6%-13.8%-12.2%
Q2 2017+0.1%+3.1%-11.2%
Q1 2017+3.0%+1.2%+2.7%
Q4 2016-3.8%-5.1%-1.0%
Q3 2016-11.0%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2016+5.5%+2.7%-7.4%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015-2.3%
Q3 2015-7.4%
Q2 2015+7.1%
Q1 2015-6.7%
Q4 2014-5.1%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014+11.4%
Q1 2014-8.3%
Q4 2013+13.9%
Q3 2013+16.3%
Q2 2013+8.8%
Q1 2013+7.6%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q4 2012+4.0%
Q3 2012-16.2%
Q2 2012-20.4%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011+11.2%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q1 2011+0.7%
Q4 2008-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010+14.5%
Q3 2009+14.5%
Q2 2009-0.3%
Q2 2010-0.3%
Q4 2009-0.3%

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