NYSE$CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Chipotle's Q4 2019 results were announced, highlighting strong comparable sales and digital growth.

Chipotle's Q4 2019 saw a 17.6% increase in revenue to $1.4 billion, driven by a 13.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales and new restaurant openings. Digital sales grew 78.3%, accounting for 19.6% of sales. Diluted earnings per share was $2.55, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $2.86.

  • Revenue increased by 17.6% to $1.4 billion.
  • Comparable restaurant sales grew by 13.4%, driven by an 8.0% increase in transactions.
  • Digital sales increased by 78.3% and represented 19.6% of total sales.
  • The company opened 80 new restaurants and closed 3 during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.44B

Previous: $1.23B+17.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.06

Previous: $0.03+100.0%
Comparable sales change

13.4%

No prior period
Net restaurant openings

77

No prior period
Total restaurants

2.6K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$95.9M

Previous: $77.4M+24.0%
Free Cash Flow

$90.6M

Previous: $51.7M+75.4%
Net Income

$72.4M

Previous: $32M+126.1%
Operating Income

$98.2M

Previous: $39.6M+147.8%
Gross Profit

$276M

Previous: $208M+32.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$481M

Previous: $250M+92.3%
Total Assets

$5.1B

Previous: $2.27B+125.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$25.7M

Previous: $20.9M+22.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Chipotle · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.44B

Q4 2019+17.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Chipotle · $15.9M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Delivery service
    $15.9M-10.8%

Forward guidance

For 2020, Chipotle anticipates mid-single digit comparable restaurant sales growth and 150 to 165 new restaurant openings, with an estimated full year tax rate between 26% and 29%.

Tailwinds

  • Mid-single digit comparable restaurant sales growth
  • 150 to 165 new restaurant openings
  • More than half of new restaurants including a Chipotlane
  • Strong ending to 2019
  • Key strategies are working

Headwinds

  • Risks of food safety and food-borne illnesses
  • Reliance on certain information technology systems
  • Privacy and cyber security risks
  • Impact of competition
  • Uncertainty of achieving expected levels of comparable restaurant sales

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+26.9%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-20.4%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.4%-2.1%-3.3%
Q4 2025+1.9%+1.1%-9.7%
Q3 2025-9.7%-20.2%-13.2%
Q2 2025-13.3%-15.9%-17.3%
Q1 2025+1.6%+3.9%+3.8%
Q4 2024-2.6%-2.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024-8.0%-3.3%+2.4%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.0%+2.2%
Q1 2024+6.8%+10.1%+8.1%
Q4 2023+7.9%+6.8%+8.9%
Q3 2023+2.5%+5.4%+20.5%
Q2 2023-10.0%-6.2%-10.3%
Q1 2023+11.9%+15.1%+14.5%
Q4 2022-3.7%-6.8%-8.8%
Q3 2022-4.5%-2.6%-2.4%
Q2 2022+13.6%+17.7%+25.2%
Q1 2022-2.7%-4.0%-11.5%
Q4 2021+10.7%+7.5%+1.1%
Q3 2021-1.7%-4.1%-3.7%
Q2 2021+13.2%+18.0%+20.6%
Q1 2021-3.4%-4.0%-13.2%
Q4 2020-0.6%-0.1%-10.5%
Q3 2020-3.6%-2.7%-4.1%
Q2 2020-3.6%-1.7%+7.7%
Q1 2020+9.2%+9.1%+27.0%
Q4 2019-1.6%-0.4%-16.1%
Q3 2019-7.5%-7.5%-9.2%
Q2 2019+4.8%+5.0%+10.3%
Q1 2019-3.5%-3.5%-5.7%
Q4 2018+11.3%+14.6%+17.0%
Q3 2018+6.2%+11.8%+14.1%
Q2 2018+4.7%-4.0%+15.3%
Q1 2018+26.9%+27.1%+28.8%
Q4 2017-9.5%-14.9%+7.2%
Q3 2017-13.6%-13.8%-12.2%
Q2 2017+0.1%+3.1%-11.2%
Q1 2017+3.0%+1.2%+2.7%
Q4 2016-3.8%-5.1%-1.0%
Q3 2016-11.0%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2016+5.5%+2.7%-7.4%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015-2.3%
Q3 2015-7.4%
Q2 2015+7.1%
Q1 2015-6.7%
Q4 2014-5.1%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014+11.4%
Q1 2014-8.3%
Q4 2013+13.9%
Q3 2013+16.3%
Q2 2013+8.8%
Q1 2013+7.6%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q4 2012+4.0%
Q3 2012-16.2%
Q2 2012-20.4%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011+11.2%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q1 2011+0.7%
Q4 2008-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010+14.5%
Q3 2009+14.5%
Q2 2009-0.3%
Q2 2010-0.3%
Q4 2009-0.3%

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