NYSE$CCL

Carnival Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported all-time record revenue and demonstrated strong third quarter 2023 earnings momentum.

Carnival Corporation & plc reports a strong third quarter with record revenues of $6.9 billion and a net income of $1.07 billion, or $0.79 diluted EPS. The company's performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand and improved commercial execution. The cumulative advanced booked position for full year 2024 is well above the high end of the historical range at higher prices than 2023 levels.

  • U.S. GAAP net income of $1.07 billion, or $0.79 diluted EPS, and adjusted net income of $1.18 billion, or $0.86 adjusted EPS, exceeded the June guidance range.
  • Third quarter revenues hit an all-time high of $6.9 billion.
  • Total customer deposits reached a third quarter record of $6.3 billion.
  • The company reduced its debt by nearly $4 billion from its peak in the first quarter of 2023 and ended the third quarter with $5.7 billion of liquidity.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.85B

Previous: $4.31B+59.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.86

Previous: -$0.58+248.3%
Customer Deposits

$6.3B

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$2.61B

Previous: -$3.76B+30.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.54B

Previous: -$4.53B+66.1%
Net Income

$1.07B

Previous: -$770M+239.5%
Operating Income

$1.62B

Previous: -$279M+682.1%
Gross Profit

$2.93B

Previous: $926M+216.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.84B

Previous: $7.07B-59.8%
Total Assets

$49.8B

Previous: $51.9B-4.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $25M-52.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Carnival · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.85B

Q3 2023+59.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 15 quarters(27%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Carnival · $4.31B total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Passenger Ticket
    $2.6B
  • Onboard and Other
    $1.71B

Forward guidance

For the full year 2023, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion, occupancy of 100 percent or higher, and net per diems (in constant currency) up approximately 7.0 percent compared to 2019. For the fourth quarter of 2023, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $900 million and net yields (in constant currency) up mid-single digits compared to 2019.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion for full year 2023
  • Occupancy of 100 percent or higher for full year 2023
  • Net per diems (in constant currency) up approximately 7.0 percent compared to 2019 for full year 2023
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $900 million for fourth quarter of 2023
  • Net yields (in constant currency) up mid-single digits compared to 2019 for fourth quarter of 2023

Headwinds

  • Adjusted net income (loss) (in millions) $(225) to $(125) for 4Q 2023
  • Adjusted earnings per share $(0.18) to $(0.10) for 4Q 2023
  • Adjusted net income (loss) (in millions) $(150) to $(50) for full year 2023
  • Adjusted earnings per share $(0.12) to $(0.04) for full year 2023
  • Fuel expense (in billions) $0.6 for 4Q 2023

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

32 / 72 earnings

Positive

+29.0%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-25.2%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.8%-3.1%
Q4 2025+9.7%+10.3%+2.0%
Q3 2025-4.0%-6.7%-9.0%
Q2 2025-1.2%+0.8%+3.2%
Q1 2025-1.2%-1.3%-15.1%
Q4 2024+2.2%+2.4%+2.7%
Q3 2024-2.8%-2.8%+19.5%
Q2 2024+12.1%+14.2%+4.3%
Q1 2024-4.1%-4.5%-11.5%
Q4 2023+4.8%+3.0%-4.1%
Q3 2023-5.5%-9.3%-22.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+19.2%+11.7%
Q1 2023+1.1%+10.0%-5.1%
Q4 2022-2.7%-3.6%+29.3%
Q3 2022-25.2%-18.9%-2.4%
Q2 2022+9.3%-8.1%-4.0%
Q1 2022-3.4%-3.0%+3.0%
Q4 2021+12.4%+16.0%+16.1%
Q3 2021+6.8%+3.4%-9.7%
Q2 2021-0.1%-8.4%-22.0%
Q1 2021-0.1%-3.0%-6.4%
Q4 2020-1.2%-2.9%+32.5%
Q3 2020-1.9%-12.3%-13.6%
Q2 2020+4.8%+19.9%-2.5%
Q1 2020+29.0%+47.1%+35.1%
Q4 2019+9.9%+9.2%+11.3%
Q3 2019-9.3%-11.6%-7.3%
Q2 2019-11.8%-14.0%-14.7%
Q1 2019-10.6%-10.5%-5.0%
Q4 2018-13.0%-16.0%-0.2%
Q3 2018-4.8%-5.8%-19.0%
Q2 2018-5.9%-9.8%-9.1%
Q1 2018-4.0%-2.0%-1.8%
Q4 2017+1.7%-0.4%+3.6%
Q3 2017+0.3%+1.7%+4.9%
Q2 2017+0.0%-2.1%+0.9%
Q1 2017+0.2%+0.1%+3.6%
Q4 2016+3.4%+3.3%+4.2%
Q3 2016+2.3%+3.3%-0.2%
Q2 2016+1.9%+2.8%+6.6%
Q1 2016+6.3%
Q4 2015+6.9%
Q3 2015-2.2%
Q2 2015-0.2%
Q1 2015+7.4%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-5.9%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-12.6%
Q2 2013+4.7%
Q1 2013-5.1%
Q4 2012-5.2%
Q3 2012-0.6%
Q2 2012-3.1%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011-0.9%
Q3 2011-7.7%
Q2 2011+1.9%
Q1 2011-6.3%
Q4 2010+2.6%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.3%
Q1 2009+1.3%
Q1 2010+0.4%
Q4 2007-0.8%
Q2 2009-0.8%
Q4 2009-0.8%
Q3 2008-2.5%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q4 2008-2.5%

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