NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AdvanSix's financial performance declined due to unfavorable market-based pricing, partially offset by increased sales volume and changes in sales mix, while maintaining focus on long-term priorities.

AdvanSix reported a decrease in sales and earnings for Q4 2023, with sales down 5% year-over-year to $382 million and a net loss of $5.1 million. The decline was primarily due to unfavorable market-based pricing, although sales volume increased. The company focused on managing through a challenging market environment and investing in long-term profitability.

  • Sales decreased by 5% compared to the prior year, totaling $382 million.
  • The company experienced a net loss of $5.1 million, a decrease of $38.7 million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $15.1 million, a $51.5 million decrease compared to the prior year.
  • Cash flow from operations decreased by $9.4 million to $60.2 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$382M

Previous: $404M-5.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.10

Previous: $1.27-107.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$38.4M

Previous: $28.4M-234.9%
Free Cash Flow

$21.8M

Previous: $41.2M-47.0%
Net Income

-$5.08M

Previous: $33.6M-115.1%
Operating Income

-$6.29M

Previous: $45.7M-113.8%
Gross Profit

$18.5M

Previous: $69M-73.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.47M

Previous: $2.68M-7.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$382M

Q4 2023-5.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $238M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Nylon
    $86.1M-39.0%
  • Chemical Intermediates
    $83.5M-27.6%
  • Caprolactam
    $68.8M-24.3%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix anticipates stabilized nylon industry spreads, strong ammonium sulfate demand, and balanced acetone supply and demand. The company expects increased capital expenditures and a pre-tax income impact from plant turnarounds. An operational disruption in Frankford, PA, is expected to negatively impact Q1 results.

Tailwinds

  • Expect nylon industry spreads to remain stabilized near current levels amid weak demand
  • Anticipate higher Nylon Solutions exports in first half of 2024 year-over-year
  • Anticipate strong ammonium sulfate seasonal demand supported by continued favorable underlying agriculture industry fundamentals
  • Expect balanced to tight global acetone supply and demand conditions
  • Teams have been focused on stabilization of phenol production, which is enabling us to ramp up our Hopewell and Chesterfield manufacturing facilities to our targeted utilization rates.

Headwinds

  • Expect first half 2024 year-over-year pricing declines amid lower nitrogen pricing environment
  • Expect Capital Expenditures of $140 to $150 million in 2024, reflecting increased spend to address critical enterprise risk mitigation and growth projects including our SUSTAIN program
  • Expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $38 to $43 million in 2024 versus approximately $30 million in 2023
  • Now expect to incur a total unfavorable impact to pre-tax income in 1Q24 of $23 to $27 million as a result of the process-based operational disruption at our Frankford, PA manufacturing site and a delayed ramp to planned utilization rates
  • While the previously disclosed operational disruption at our Frankford, Pennsylvania manufacturing site is impacting our first quarter results

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-15.1%-6.6%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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