NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AdvanSix demonstrated strong volume growth, margin improvement, and cash flow generation.

AdvanSix reported a 4.2% increase in sales, a significant increase in net income, and a substantial rise in cash flow from operations for Q4 2020. The company highlighted strong volume growth and margin improvements.

  • Sales increased by 4.2% versus the prior year.
  • EPS was $0.94, up $1.02 versus the prior year.
  • Cash flow from operations was $48 million, up $28 million versus the prior year.
  • Net income increased by $28.9 million versus the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$340M

Previous: $327M+4.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.94

Previous: $0.82+14.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$48.5M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

14.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$15.4M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$32.4M

Previous: -$24.1M+234.5%
Net Income

$26.8M

Previous: -$2.09M+1378.1%
Operating Income

$30.8M

Previous: -$3.71M+929.2%
Gross Profit

$52.6M

Previous: $14.9M+254.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$10.6M

Previous: $7.05M+50.4%
Total Assets

$1.26B

Previous: $1.24B+2.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.4M

Previous: $774K+80.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$340M

Q4 2020+4.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $262M total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Chemical Intermediates
    $119M+17.6%
  • Nylon
    $78.3M-4.2%
  • Caprolactam
    $64.7M-5.8%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix anticipates near-term improvement in nylon demand, increased ammonium sulfate fertilizer demand, and a favorable acetone industry supply and demand balance. Capital expenditures are expected to be $80 to $90 million in 2021, and the pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds is expected to be $25 to $30 million in 2021. They also expect to receive approximately $12 million cash tax refund in the first half of 2021 related to CARES Act

Tailwinds

  • Expect near-term improvement in nylon demand while navigating COVID environment
  • Expect increased ammonium sulfate fertilizer demand through 2021 planting season supported by improvement in agricultural industry fundamentals
  • Expect favorable acetone industry supply and demand balance to continue
  • Continue to expect Capital Expenditures to be $80 to $90 million in 2021
  • Expect to receive approximately $12 million cash tax refund in the first half of 2021 related to CARES Act

Headwinds

  • Navigating COVID environment
  • Continue to expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $25 to $30 million in 2021

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-14.5%-6.0%-9.9%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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