NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced third quarter 2022 financial results

AdvanSix reported sales of $479 million, up 7% year-over-year, driven by market-based pricing and raw material pass-through pricing, offset by lower volume due to the extended plant turnaround; EPS was $0.35 and adjusted EPS was $0.43; cash flow from operations was $59 million.

  • Sales up approximately 7% versus prior year driven by 18% favorable impact of market-based pricing, 4% higher raw material pass-through pricing, and 3% contribution from acquisitions, partially offset by 18% lower volume
  • Net Income of $10.0 million, a decrease of $33.9 million versus the prior year
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $33.3 million, a decrease of $44.4 million versus the prior year
  • Cash Flow from Operations of $58.9 million, a decrease of $17.6 million versus the prior year

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$479M

Previous: $446M+7.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.43

Previous: $1.51-71.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$61M

Previous: -$37.5M-62.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$51M

Previous: $6.47M-887.8%
Net Income

$10M

Previous: $43.9M-77.2%
Operating Income

-$466M

Previous: -$387M-20.6%
Gross Profit

$35.1M

Previous: $80.3M-56.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$24.7M

Previous: $7.24M+241.1%
Total Assets

$1.46B

Previous: $1.29B+12.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.22M

Previous: $2.5M-11.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$479M

Q3 2022+7.2%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $347M total across 3 segments · Q3 2022

  • Nylon
    $141M+15.5%
  • Chemical Intermediates
    $115M-12.0%
  • Caprolactam
    $90.8M+13.1%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix expects performance rebounding towards results demonstrated in 1Q22 and 2Q22 as well as continued strong cash flow generation, strong underlying agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals to continue, North American demand for nylon and chemical intermediates mixed overall; softness in consumer durables and building and construction end markets, targeting our typical high plant utilization rates as supported by our global competitive position.

Tailwinds

  • 4Q22 expected performance rebounding towards results demonstrated in 1Q22 and 2Q22 as well as continued strong cash flow generation
  • Expect strong underlying agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals to continue
  • North American demand for nylon and chemical intermediates mixed overall
  • Targeting our typical high plant utilization rates as supported by our global competitive position
  • Capital Expenditures tracking to approximately $95 million for the full year 2022

Headwinds

  • softness in consumer durables and building and construction end markets
  • Expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $28 million to $33 million in 2023 versus approximately $50 million in 2022

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-14.5%-6.0%-9.9%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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