NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in sales but an increase in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year.

AdvanSix reported Q4 2022 financial results, with sales of $404 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year. However, net income increased to $33.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $66.6 million. The company's cash flow from operations was $69.6 million, and it repurchased 284,201 shares for approximately $10 million during the quarter. The Board of Directors authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program.

  • Sales decreased by 5% year-over-year to $404 million due to lower volume, partially offset by favorable market-based pricing and contributions from acquisitions.
  • Net income increased to $33.6 million, up from $23.6 million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $66.6 million, driven by higher market-based pricing and the favorable impact of planned plant turnarounds.
  • Cash flow from operations increased to $69.6 million, primarily due to higher net income.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$404M

Previous: $424M-4.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.27

Previous: $0.80+58.7%
Capital Expenditures

$28.4M

Previous: $19.3M+47.0%
Free Cash Flow

$41.2M

Previous: $14M+194.4%
Net Income

$33.6M

Previous: $23.6M+42.6%
Operating Income

$45.7M

Previous: $32.1M+42.3%
Gross Profit

$69M

Previous: $54.5M+26.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$31M

Previous: $15.1M+105.2%
Total Assets

$1.5B

Previous: $1.31B+14.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.68M

Previous: $2.69M-0.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$404M

Q4 2022-4.7%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $238M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Nylon
    $86.1M-39.0%
  • Chemical Intermediates
    $83.5M-27.6%
  • Caprolactam
    $68.8M-24.3%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix expects strong agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals to continue, along with balanced supply and demand conditions for North American acetone. However, they anticipate headwinds in consumer durables and building and construction end markets. Capital expenditures are expected to be $110 million to $120 million in 2023, and the pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds is projected to be $28 million to $33 million.

Tailwinds

  • Expect strong underlying agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals to continue
  • Expect balanced supply and demand conditions for North American acetone
  • Diverse product portfolio
  • Resilience of business model
  • Healthy balance sheet to deploy capital and maximize shareholder value

Headwinds

  • Expect headwinds in consumer durables and building and construction end markets across nylon and other chemical intermediates
  • Expect Capital Expenditures of $110 million to $120 million in 2023, reflecting increased spend due to critical infrastructure, other maintenance, and growth and cost savings projects
  • Expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $28 million to $33 million in 2023 versus approximately $50 million in 2022
  • Anticipate the challenges of an uncertain environment to impact several end applications within our nylon and chemical intermediates product lines
  • Targeting a return to higher plant production rates in 2023 to complement our strong commercial performance

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-14.5%-6.0%-9.9%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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