NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Delivered solid earnings results amid a dynamic macro environment.

AdvanSix reported sales of $401 million, a 16% decrease compared to the prior year. Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.22, and adjusted EPS was $1.30. The company returned $18 million of cash to shareholders through repurchases and dividends and announced a planned multi-year investment to expand granular ammonium sulfate production.

  • Sales decreased by approximately 16% versus prior year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable market-based pricing.
  • Net Income decreased to $35.0 million, a decrease of $28.1 million versus the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $65.4 million, a decrease of $37.8 million versus the prior year.
  • Free Cash Flow was ($23.0) million, a decrease of $51.2 million versus the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$401M

Previous: $479M-16.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.30

Previous: $2.26-42.5%
Capital Expenditures

$24.6M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$10.4M

Previous: $42.1M-75.4%
Net Income

$35M

Previous: $63.1M-44.6%
Operating Income

-$356M

Previous: -$397M+10.4%
Gross Profit

$70.5M

Previous: $103M-31.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.83M

Previous: $19.3M-90.5%
Total Assets

$1.45B

Previous: $1.46B-0.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.01M

Previous: $3.37M-40.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$401M

Q1 2023-16.4%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $286M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Chemical Intermediates
    $115M-15.6%
  • Nylon
    $99.4M-16.2%
  • Caprolactam
    $72.4M+3.4%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix anticipates strong agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals through the domestic planting season and expects improvement in 2Q23 ammonium sulfate domestic sales volume. They also foresee balanced supply and demand for North American acetone and continued headwinds in consumer durables and building and construction end markets. Capital expenditures are expected to be $110 million to $120 million in 2023, and the pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds is projected to be $28 million to $33 million.

Tailwinds

  • Expect strong underlying agriculture and fertilizer industry fundamentals to continue through the domestic planting season
  • Anticipate improvement in 2Q23 ammonium sulfate domestic sales volume in a lower nitrogen and raw material pricing environment
  • Expect balanced supply and demand conditions for North American acetone to continue

Headwinds

  • Expect continued headwinds in consumer durables and building and construction end markets across nylon and other chemical intermediates
  • Continue to expect Capital Expenditures of $110 million to $120 million in 2023, reflecting increased spend due to critical infrastructure, other maintenance, and growth and cost savings projects
  • Continue to expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $28 million to $33 million in 2023 versus approximately $50 million in 2022
  • Negotiations with Hopewell South bargaining unit remain ongoing

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-15.1%-6.6%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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