NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AdvanSix's financial performance declined due to challenging market conditions and planned plant turnarounds.

AdvanSix reported a decrease in sales, net income, and EBITDA compared to the prior year, impacted by lower raw material pass-through pricing, market-based pricing pressures, and planned plant turnarounds. The company continued to invest in strategic growth and cost-saving projects.

  • Sales decreased by 16% due to lower raw material pass-through pricing, unfavorable market-based pricing, and lower volume.
  • Net loss was ($2.1) million, a decrease of $22.9 million versus the prior year
  • EBITDA decreased by $30.0 million versus the prior year, impacted by planned plant turnarounds and challenging nylon industry dynamics.
  • Cash flow from operations decreased by $25.8 million versus the prior year due to lower net income.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$327M

Previous: $387M-15.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.82

Previous: $0.68+20.6%
Capital Expenditures

$43.9M

Previous: $36.6M+20.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$24.1M

Previous: $9.09M-365.1%
Net Income

-$2.09M

Previous: $20.8M-110.1%
Operating Income

-$3.71M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$14.9M

Previous: $53.8M-72.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.05M

Previous: $9.81M-28.1%
Total Assets

$1.24B

Previous: $1.03B+19.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$774K

Previous: $2.63M-70.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$327M

Q4 2019-15.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $252M total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Chemical Intermediates
    $101M-15.5%
  • Nylon
    $81.7M-21.8%
  • Caprolactam
    $68.6M-15.5%

Forward guidance

AdvanSix expects challenging nylon industry conditions to continue in the near term and a mixed ammonium sulfate fertilizer environment through the 2020 planting season. They anticipate the PES supplier disruption to unfavorably impact pre-tax income by $10 to $15 million in 2020. Capital expenditures are expected to be $90 to $100 million in 2020, and the pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds is projected to be $33 to $38 million.

Tailwinds

  • Acetone industry pricing is expected to stabilize with improved supply and demand balance.
  • Focus on improved operational efficiency
  • Enhancement of growth capabilities
  • Smart and disciplined investments in the business to drive higher returns

Headwinds

  • Challenging nylon industry conditions are expected to continue in near-term
  • Mixed ammonium sulfate fertilizer environment to continue through 2020 planting season
  • Unfavorable impact to pre-tax income from PES supplier disruption and shutdown of $10 to $15 million in 2020
  • Pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be $33 to $38 million in 2020

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-14.5%-6.0%-9.9%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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