NYSE$ASIX

Advansix Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter 2020 financial results, with sales down 33% and EPS down $0.12 versus prior year.

AdvanSix reported a decrease in sales by approximately 33% compared to the prior year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable pricing. Net income also decreased, but the EBITDA margin increased due to cost management and productivity benefits. The company's global low-cost position and diverse portfolio helped mitigate the impacts of COVID-19.

  • Sales decreased by approximately 33% versus prior year, influenced by lower volume, raw material pass-through pricing, and market-based pricing.
  • Net Income was $11.4 million, a decrease of $3.9 million versus the prior year.
  • EBITDA was $30.7 million, a decrease of $5.2 million versus the prior year.
  • Cash Flow from Operations was $8.8 million, a decrease of $16.5 million versus the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$233M

Previous: $345M-32.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.41

Previous: $0.85-51.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$30.7M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

13.2%

Previous: 10.4%+26.9%
Cash Flow from Operations

$8.83M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$17.5M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$40.2M

Previous: -$55.9M+28.1%
Net Income

$11.4M

Previous: $15.3M-25.5%
Operating Income

-$217M

Previous: -$325M+33.4%
Gross Profit

$34.3M

Previous: $42.1M-18.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$72.7M

Previous: $17.1M+326.0%
Total Assets

$1.29B

Previous: $1.16B+10.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.7M

Previous: $2.81M-39.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Advansix · Revenue · Quarterly

$233M

Q2 2020-32.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Advansix · $154M total across 3 segments · Q2 2020

  • Chemical Intermediates
    $67.6M
  • Nylon
    $51.3M
  • Caprolactam
    $35M

Forward guidance

AdvanSix anticipates a continued challenging nylon demand environment, expects typical ammonium sulfate seasonality to drive pricing decline, and foresees a favorable acetone industry supply and demand balance. The company is focused on cost management, reduced capital expenditures, and leveraging benefits from the CARES Act to improve cash flow in the second half of 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Optimizing mix across end uses, applications and geographies
  • Expect favorable acetone industry supply and demand balance to continue
  • Continued disciplined cost management - expect $15 to $20 million full year cost reduction (previously expected $10 to $15 million)
  • Expect improved cash flow from operations in the second half of 2020 supported by working capital improvements and cash tax benefits associated with the CARES Act
  • Focused on flawless execution of third quarter planned plant turnaround, while continuing to safely operate at higher utilization rates relative to industry

Headwinds

  • Challenging nylon demand environment expected to continue
  • Typical ammonium sulfate seasonality expected to drive 3Q20 sequential domestic pricing decline and higher export mix
  • Expect Capital Expenditures to be approximately $85 million in 2020, a decrease of approximately $65 million versus 2019
  • Expect pre-tax income impact of planned plant turnarounds to be approximately $32 million in 2020 (versus approximately $35 million in 2019 and approximately $42 million in 2018)
  • Uncertainty remains around the duration of the pandemic and the pace of global recovery

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+15.6%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-14.5%-6.0%-9.9%
Q4 2025+3.9%+0.8%+12.5%
Q3 2025-15.0%-10.9%-11.7%
Q1 2025+6.1%+6.9%+10.4%
Q3 2024+5.0%+11.8%+14.5%
Q2 2024+2.7%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2024-9.9%-6.3%-8.0%
Q4 2023+0.8%-0.6%-4.2%
Q3 2023-9.5%-13.2%-5.0%
Q2 2023-8.1%-5.3%-14.0%
Q1 2023-0.7%-1.2%+1.1%
Q4 2022-3.3%-0.9%-17.7%
Q3 2022+3.7%+1.7%+14.9%
Q2 2022+1.6%+2.0%-8.2%
Q1 2022-3.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q4 2021-11.0%-14.7%+30.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.3%+2.4%
Q2 2021+2.6%+6.9%+11.5%
Q1 2021+3.3%+6.7%+3.4%
Q4 2020+11.5%+8.1%+2.8%
Q3 2020+4.4%-1.3%+23.6%
Q2 2020+1.5%+5.2%+16.4%
Q1 2020-6.0%-7.2%-2.8%
Q4 2019-15.5%-27.0%-34.1%
Q3 2019+3.4%+4.0%-11.1%
Q2 2019-2.3%-10.3%-12.9%
Q1 2019+8.1%+1.6%-18.7%
Q4 2018+2.0%-1.2%-15.6%
Q3 2018-8.9%-2.9%-2.5%
Q2 2018-13.2%-13.5%-15.0%
Q1 2018-5.5%+2.0%+2.9%
Q4 2017+4.5%+6.6%-12.2%
Q3 2017-6.7%-7.2%-11.4%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q2 2016-4.6%-4.0%+3.2%
Q1 2017+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2016+15.6%+13.7%+11.3%
Q1 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q2 2015-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2014-7.1%-9.9%-11.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%+1.3%
Q4 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2016+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%
Q3 2015+8.5%+6.9%+30.4%

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