NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Red Robin reported an improved net loss and increased total revenue, driven by an additional week in the quarter.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2023. The company saw an increase in total revenues, a significant improvement in net loss, and a rise in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the same period in the previous year. While comparable restaurant revenue decreased slightly for the quarter, the company highlighted its progress in operational improvements and financial strengthening.

  • Total revenues increased by $19.4 million, including an additional week in the quarter.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue decreased by 2.7%.
  • Net loss improved by $31.0 million compared to Q4 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 26%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$309M

Previous: $290M+6.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.66

Previous: -$1.35+51.1%
Net Menu Price

7.5%

No prior period
Menu Mix

-1.1%

No prior period
Guest traffic

-4.3%

No prior period
Restaurant level operating margin

12.2%

Previous: 11.4%+7.0%
Net Income

-$13.7M

Previous: -$44.2M+68.9%
Operating Income

-$7.96M

Previous: -$39.4M+79.8%
Gross Profit

$30.9M

Previous: $95.1M-67.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.76M

Previous: -$1.94M+191.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$309M

Q4 2023+6.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $378M total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Restaurant revenue
    $371M
  • Franchise and other revenue
    $7.16M

Forward guidance

Red Robin provided guidance for fiscal year 2024, including total revenue, comparable restaurant revenue, restaurant level operating profit, and capital expenditures.

Tailwinds

  • Total revenue is expected to be between $1.250 billion and $1.275 billion.
  • Restaurant level operating profit is projected to be between 12.5% and 13.5%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $60 million and $70 million.
  • The company anticipates completing a Sale-Leaseback transaction to sell and simultaneously lease-back from eight (8) to eleven (11) owned properties during the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
  • Red Robin expects the transaction to generate gross proceeds of $20 million to $26 million and to use net proceeds from the transaction to repay debt.

Headwinds

  • Comparable restaurant revenue is expected to have a low single digit percentage decline.
  • Guidance is inclusive of investments in the Guest experience and rent expenses related to the sale leaseback transactions.
  • Fiscal 2024 includes 52 weeks versus 53 weeks in fiscal 2023.
  • The company has not provided a reconciliation of its Restaurant Level Operating Profit or Adjusted EBITDA outlook to the most comparable GAAP measure of Income (loss) from operations and Net income (loss), respectively.
  • Providing Income (loss) from operations and Net Income (loss) guidance is potentially misleading and not practical given the difficulty of projecting event-driven transactional and other non-core operating items

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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