NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the quarter ended October 3, 2021.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported a restaurant revenue of $270.2 million and a Restaurant Level Operating Profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue of 12.5% for the third quarter of 2021. Comparable restaurant revenue increased 34.3% over the same period in 2020, and increased 0.6% compared to the same period in 2019.

  • Restaurant revenue of $270.2 million and Restaurant Level Operating Profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue of 12.5%.
  • Third quarter 2021 comparable restaurant revenue increased 34.3% over the same period in 2020, and increased 0.6% compared to the same period in 2019.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue improving, up 4.0% for the first period of the fourth fiscal quarter compared to 2019, driven by strategic growth initiatives and improvements in staffing levels.
  • Off-premises sales sustained at high levels, comprising $81.0 million of comparable restaurant revenue.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$275M

Previous: $200M+37.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.88

Previous: -$0.19-363.2%
Restaurant level operating margin

12.5%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$15M

Previous: -$6.18M-142.4%
Net Income

-$15M

Previous: -$6.18M-142.4%
Operating Income

-$12.1M

Previous: -$24.6M+50.7%
Gross Profit

-$162M

Previous: -$120M-34.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$17.8M

Previous: $27.4M-35.1%
Total Assets

$922M

Previous: $1.03B-10.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.04M

Previous: $1.31M+55.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$275M

Q3 2021+37.4%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $5.24M total across 1 segment · Q3 2021

  • Franchise and other revenue
    $5.24M

Forward guidance

The Company currently expects the following for full year 2021: Mid-single digit commodity and wage inflation. Selling, general and administrative costs between $120 and $130 million. Capital expenditures of $45 to $55 million.

Tailwinds

  • Continued investment in maintaining our restaurants and systems capital.
  • Donatos® expansion to approximately 120 restaurants, including approximately 40 restaurants in our fourth fiscal quarter.
  • Digital guest and operational technology solutions.
  • Off-premises execution enhancements.

Headwinds

  • Mid-single digit commodity and wage inflation.
  • Uncertainty caused by the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Industry labor and supply chain challenges
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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