NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong Q1 2023 results driven by the ‘North Star’ plan implementation, exceeding industry average comparable restaurant revenue growth, and raised fiscal 2023 outlook.

Red Robin reported a solid first quarter, demonstrating the effectiveness of its 'North Star' plan. The company saw an increase in total revenues and comparable restaurant revenue, exceeding industry averages. Due to the strong performance, Red Robin raised its financial guidance for 2023.

  • Total revenues increased to $418.0 million, a $22.4 million increase compared to 2022.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 8.6%, exceeding industry averages.
  • Net loss remained unchanged at $3.1 million compared to 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $36.1 million, an $8.1 million increase compared to 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$418M

Previous: $396M+5.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.25

Previous: -$0.12+308.3%
Restaurant level operating margin

14.7%

Previous: 14.0%+5.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.1M

Previous: -$3.11M+0.2%
Net Income

-$3.1M

Previous: -$3.11M+0.2%
Operating Income

$4.34M

Previous: $4.37M-0.8%
Gross Profit

-$245M

Previous: -$229M-7.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$49M

Previous: $33.8M+45.2%
Total Assets

$804M

Previous: $907M-11.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.17M

Previous: $3.04M-28.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$418M

Q1 2023+5.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $407M total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • Restaurant revenue
    $407M+6.9%

Forward guidance

Red Robin is raising its guidance for fiscal year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue: At least $1.3 billion
  • Comparable Restaurant Revenue: Increase 2.0% to 4.0%
  • Restaurant Level Operating Profit: At least 13.5%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $70 to $80 million

Headwinds

  • Selling, general and administrative costs: $127 to $132 million
  • Capital expenditures: $45 to $50 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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