NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2023.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported an increase in total revenues to $298.6 million and a net income of $3.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2023. The company also completed a Sale-Leaseback transaction and repaid $15.5 million of debt, repurchasing $5 million of stock.

  • Total revenues increased to $298.6 million, a $4.6 million increase compared to 2022.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 1.5%.
  • Net income increased by $21.9 million to $3.9 million compared to 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by $3.7 million to $15.5 million compared to 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$299M

Previous: $294M+1.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.24

Previous: -$0.75+68.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$15.5M

No prior period
Restaurant level operating margin

12.6%

Previous: 13.6%-7.4%
Comparable restaurant revenue

1.5%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$3.92M

Previous: -$17.9M+121.9%
Net Income

$3.92M

Previous: -$17.9M+121.9%
Operating Income

$10.3M

Previous: -$13.4M+176.8%
Gross Profit

-$181M

Previous: -$174M-3.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$44M

Previous: $50.3M-12.5%
Total Assets

$798M

Previous: $884M-9.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.52M

Previous: $2.53M-39.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$299M

Q2 2023+1.5%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $293M total across 1 segment · Q2 2023

  • Restaurant revenue
    $293M+1.6%

Forward guidance

Red Robin expects total revenue to be at least $1.3 billion, comparable restaurant revenue to increase by 1.0% to 3.0%, restaurant level operating profit to be at least 13.5%, selling, general and administrative costs to be between $127 to $132 million, capital expenditures to be between $45 to $50 million, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $72.5 to $82.5 million for fiscal year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue: At least $1.3 billion
  • Comparable Restaurant Revenue: Increase 1.0% to 3.0%
  • Restaurant Level Operating Profit: At least 13.5%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $72.5 to $82.5 million
  • Fiscal 2023 includes 53 weeks versus 52 weeks in fiscal 2022.

Headwinds

  • Selling, general and administrative costs: $127 to $132 million
  • Capital expenditures: $45 to $50 million
  • The Company has not provided a reconciliation of its Restaurant Level Operating Profit or Adjusted EBITDA outlook to the most comparable GAAP measure of Income from operations and Net income, respectively.
  • Providing Income (loss) from operations and Net Income (loss) guidance is potentially misleading and not practical given the difficulty of projecting event-driven transactional and other non-core operating items that are included in Income from operations and Net income (loss), including asset impairments and income tax valuation adjustments.
  • The reconciliations of Restaurant Level Operating Profit and Adjusted EBITDA to Income from operations and Net income (loss), respectively, for the historical periods presented herein is indicative of the reconciliations that will be prepared upon completion of the periods covered by the non-GAAP guidance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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