NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results, showing a decrease in total revenues and a net loss compared to the same quarter of the previous year, impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported a decrease in total revenues and a net loss for the fourth quarter of 2020, primarily due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, including dining room restrictions. Off-premise sales increased significantly, but were not enough to offset the overall decline in revenue. The company received cash tax refunds and expects additional refunds in the coming year.

  • Total revenues decreased by 33.6% to $201.1 million due to COVID-19 impacts.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue decreased by 29.0%.
  • Off-premise sales increased by 131.8%, representing 43.9% of total food and beverage sales.
  • Net loss was $39.3 million, compared to a net loss of $7.7 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$201M

Previous: $303M-33.6%
EPS (adj)

-$1.79

Previous: -$0.36-397.2%
Net Income

-$39.3M

Previous: -$7.7M-410.8%
Operating Income

-$41.7M

Previous: $1.55M-2798.1%
Gross Profit

$57.6M

Previous: $106M-45.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$16.1M

Previous: $30M-46.4%
Total Assets

$975M

Previous: $1.24B-21.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.25M

Previous: $805K+55.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$201M

Q4 2020-33.6%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $378M total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Restaurant revenue
    $371M
  • Franchise and other revenue
    $7.16M

Forward guidance

Red Robin expects significant comparable restaurant revenue growth in 2021, driven by the recovery of Western markets, pent-up demand for casual dining, higher average guest check with increasing on-premise dining, and industry restaurant closures. The company also anticipates incremental growth from enterprise pricing, outdoor seating capacity expansions, restoration of full operating hours, and Donatos® expansion.

Tailwinds

  • Recovery of Western markets representing a meaningful portion of portfolio
  • Pent up demand for casual dining
  • Higher average Guest check with increasing on-premise dining
  • Industry restaurant closures will drive significant comparable restaurant revenue growth in 2021
  • Enterprise pricing, outdoor seating capacity expansions, restoration of full operating hours, and Donatos® expansion will generate incremental growth of mid-to-high single digit comparable restaurant revenue in 2021

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty caused by the on-going COVID-19 pandemic
  • Supply chain disruption
  • Changes in consumer spending trends and habits
  • Changes in the cost and availability of key food products, distribution, labor, and energy
  • Potential negative publicity regarding food safety or cyber security

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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