NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended December 29, 2024.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported a decrease in total revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to fewer operating weeks compared to the prior year. Despite the revenue decline, the company saw an increase in comparable restaurant revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency.

  • Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $285.2 million, a decrease from $309.0 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to fewer operating weeks.
  • Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.4% excluding the impact of a change in deferred loyalty revenue, and by 1.8% including this impact.
  • Net loss for Q4 2024 was $39.7 million, which includes $32.4 million in impairment and net closure costs.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 19.0% to $12.7 million in Q4 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$285M

Previous: $309M-7.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.94

Previous: -$0.66-42.4%
Net Menu Price

6.8%

Previous: 7.5%-9.3%
Menu Mix

-0.1%

Previous: -1.1%+90.9%
Deferred Loyalty Revenue

-0.1%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$14.4M

No prior period
Guest traffic

-3.5%

Previous: -4.3%+18.6%
Restaurant level operating margin

11.5%

Previous: 12.2%-5.7%
Comparable restaurant revenue

1.8%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$6.62M

No prior period
Net Income

-$39.7M

Previous: -$13.7M-189.2%
Operating Income

-$33.5M

Previous: -$7.96M-321.4%
Gross Profit

$23.9M

Previous: $30.9M-22.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$285M

Q4 2024-7.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $378M total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Restaurant revenue
    $371M
  • Franchise and other revenue
    $7.16M

Forward guidance

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. provided financial guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting total revenue between $1.225 billion and $1.250 billion, restaurant level operating profit between 12.0% and 13.0%, adjusted EBITDA (excluding stock-based compensation) between $60 million and $65 million, and capital expenditures between $25 million and $30 million.

Tailwinds

  • Projected total revenue for FY 2025 is between $1.225 billion and $1.250 billion.
  • Anticipated restaurant level operating profit margin for FY 2025 is between 12.0% and 13.0%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA (excluding stock-based compensation) is expected to be between $60 million and $65 million.
  • The company is well-positioned to deliver significant value to guests and shareholders.
  • The strategy in place is expected to continue the positive momentum from Q4 2024.

Headwinds

  • The company does not present a reconciliation of forecasted non-GAAP measures to corresponding GAAP measures due to the difficulty of projecting event-driven transactional and other non-core operating items.
  • The guidance assumes no obligation to update or supplement this information, which may change.
  • The company is evaluating alternatives for approximately 70 underperforming restaurant locations, which could impact future operations.
  • The company's performance for the remainder of 2025 may not be consistent with the results from the first eight weeks of 2025.
  • Various risks and uncertainties, including economic and geopolitical environments, competition, and supply chain disruptions, could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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