NASDAQ$RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in total revenues and net loss compared to the same quarter last year, but saw an increase in adjusted EBITDA.

Red Robin reported a decrease in total revenues and net loss for the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. However, the company saw an increase in adjusted EBITDA and made progress on its "North Star" five-point plan, including debt repayment and stock repurchase.

  • Total revenues decreased to $277.6 million, a $9.2 million decrease.
  • Net loss was $8.2 million, a $4.5 million decrease from a net loss of $12.7 million during the same period of 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $6.8 million, a $2.9 million increase.
  • The company repaid $8.4 million of debt and repurchased $5.0 million of stock.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$278M

Previous: $287M-3.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.79

Previous: -$1.03+23.3%
Restaurant level operating margin

11.1%

Previous: 12.6%-11.9%
Comparable restaurant revenue

-3.4%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$8.16M

Previous: -$12.6M+35.1%
Net Income

-$8.16M

Previous: -$12.6M+35.1%
Operating Income

-$1.94M

Previous: -$8.02M+75.8%
Gross Profit

-$169M

Previous: -$171M+1.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$48.6M

Previous: $50M-3.0%
Total Assets

$777M

Previous: $861M-9.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.48M

Previous: $2.66M-44.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Red Robin · Revenue · Quarterly

$278M

Q3 2023-3.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Red Robin · $378M total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Restaurant revenue
    $371M
  • Franchise and other revenue
    $7.16M

Forward guidance

Red Robin provided guidance for fiscal year 2023, expecting total revenue of at least $1.3 billion, comparable restaurant revenue to increase by 1.0% to 3.0%, restaurant level operating profit of 13.0% to 13.5%, selling, general and administrative costs of $123 to $127 million, capital expenditures of $45 to $50 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $72.5 to $77.5 million.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue: At least $1.3 billion
  • Comparable Restaurant Revenue: Increase 1.0% to 3.0%
  • Restaurant Level Operating Profit: 13.0% to 13.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience
  • Selling, general and administrative costs: $123 to $127 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $72.5 to $77.5 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

39 / 66 earnings

Positive

+62.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-31.3%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+17.7%+18.4%+62.1%
Q4 2025+32.6%+22.3%-27.0%
Q3 2025-6.2%-10.9%-14.0%
Q2 2025+1.7%+11.0%+12.3%
Q1 2025+62.3%+107.7%+75.7%
Q4 2024+34.5%+7.1%-19.2%
Q3 2024-14.5%-17.3%-8.1%
Q2 2024-14.1%-23.4%-21.6%
Q1 2024+13.0%+21.3%+10.7%
Q4 2023-15.0%-15.9%-13.0%
Q3 2023+14.8%+15.5%+15.2%
Q2 2023-5.4%-9.1%-13.0%
Q1 2023+4.9%-2.4%-8.0%
Q4 2022+27.6%+35.6%+67.8%
Q3 2022-15.1%-12.0%+4.3%
Q2 2022-10.7%-9.6%-18.3%
Q1 2022+34.6%+23.0%+6.6%
Q4 2021+14.5%+28.6%+1.4%
Q3 2021-4.3%-6.6%-21.0%
Q2 2021-16.4%-10.3%-7.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%-0.9%-7.2%
Q4 2020+8.6%+21.2%+21.1%
Q3 2020+11.9%+43.3%+71.7%
Q2 2020-4.0%-2.7%+21.3%
Q1 2020-31.3%-24.4%-49.6%
Q4 2019-24.9%-21.8%-66.2%
Q3 2019-12.9%-17.0%-15.4%
Q2 2019+4.3%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2019-15.9%-12.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-3.7%+2.3%-3.8%
Q3 2018+7.3%+6.4%+0.9%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.6%+0.1%
Q1 2018-21.9%-20.9%-13.9%
Q4 2017+6.2%+1.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017-28.8%-29.9%-24.4%
Q2 2017+3.1%+6.6%+0.4%
Q1 2017+20.5%+23.1%+8.4%
Q4 2016+4.4%-1.7%+13.0%
Q3 2016+5.6%+7.5%+13.6%
Q2 2016+6.1%+7.4%+2.1%
Q1 2016-22.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015-13.9%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+19.3%
Q4 2014+3.9%
Q3 2014+20.4%
Q2 2014-14.9%
Q1 2014+12.5%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+7.9%
Q2 2013+9.3%
Q1 2013+4.5%
Q4 2012+11.2%
Q3 2012+21.5%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-14.8%
Q1 2012-1.9%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2009-1.2%
Q3 2011+7.5%
Q3 2010+7.5%
Q2 2011+3.5%
Q2 2010+3.5%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q1 2010-14.6%

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