NASDAQ$LGIH

LGI Homes Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LGI Homes reported strong Q4 2023 results, achieving guidance targets and laying the foundation for future profitable growth.

LGI Homes reported a strong fourth quarter with a 24.6% increase in home sales revenues to $608.4 million and a 21.4% increase in homes closed to 1,758. The company's net income increased 52.7% to $52.1 million, or $2.21 basic EPS and $2.19 diluted EPS. LGI Homes successfully achieved all of its guidance targets for 2023.

  • Home sales revenues increased 24.6% to $608.4 million.
  • Homes closed increased 21.4% to 1,758 homes.
  • Gross margin as a percentage of home sales revenues increased 270 basis points to 23.4%.
  • Net income increased 52.7% to $52.1 million, or $2.21 basic EPS and $2.19 diluted EPS.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$608M

Previous: $488M+24.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.19

Previous: $1.45+51.0%
Net Income

$52.1M

Previous: $34.1M+52.7%
Operating Income

$59.8M

Previous: $40.8M+46.7%
Gross Profit

$143M

Previous: $101M+41.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$340K

Previous: $557K-39.0%

Revenue & EPS history

LGI Homes · Revenue · Quarterly

$608M

Q4 2023+24.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company expects home closings between 7,000 and 8,000. Active selling communities at the end of 2024 of approximately 150. Average sales price per home closed between $350,000 and $360,000. Gross margin as a percentage of home sales revenues between 23.1% and 24.1%. Adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) as a percentage of home sales revenues between 25.0% and 26.0% with capitalized interest accounting for substantially all the difference between gross margin and adjusted gross margin. SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues between 12.5% and 13.5%. Effective tax rate between 24.0% and 25.0%.

Tailwinds

  • Home closings between 7,000 and 8,000
  • Active selling communities at the end of 2024 of approximately 150
  • Average sales price per home closed between $350,000 and $360,000
  • Gross margin as a percentage of home sales revenues between 23.1% and 24.1%
  • Adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) as a percentage of home sales revenues between 25.0% and 26.0%

Headwinds

  • Inflation may prove to be more stubborn than previously expected.
  • The outlook for interest rates and the broader economy is impossible to determine with certainty.
  • General economic conditions, including input costs, materials, product and labor availability, interest rates and mortgage availability, in the remainder of 2024 are similar to those experienced to date in 2024
  • Average sales price per home closed, construction costs, availability of land and land development costs in the remainder of 2024 are consistent with the Company’s recent experience.
  • Governmental regulations relating to land development and home construction are similar to those currently in place.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+27.0%

Q2 2015

Best reaction

-16.7%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+7.7%+7.1%+7.5%
Q4 2025-4.4%-8.8%-39.1%
Q3 2025+9.3%+14.7%+24.3%
Q1 2025-7.8%-7.0%-14.4%
Q3 2024+6.2%+5.4%+2.1%
Q2 2024+9.6%+1.5%+1.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%+0.7%-0.6%
Q4 2023-9.7%-10.7%-11.2%
Q3 2023+12.6%+25.0%+32.8%
Q2 2023+0.6%-2.9%-11.3%
Q1 2023-1.6%-2.6%-3.1%
Q4 2022-8.7%-8.0%-2.7%
Q3 2022-9.4%-9.5%+11.1%
Q2 2022-6.6%-5.4%-18.9%
Q1 2022+6.9%-0.2%+1.0%
Q4 2021+5.4%+2.3%+1.4%
Q3 2021-10.2%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2021-8.2%-8.5%-5.7%
Q1 2021+0.0%+6.6%-0.3%
Q4 2020+0.7%-5.1%+25.8%
Q3 2020+8.1%+4.8%-4.3%
Q2 2020-1.3%-5.2%-2.8%
Q1 2020+6.7%+13.9%+36.4%
Q4 2019-16.7%-19.0%-45.0%
Q3 2019-1.1%-6.9%-1.1%
Q2 2019+9.7%+10.8%+21.4%
Q1 2019-5.4%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2018-3.5%-4.7%-1.2%
Q3 2018-12.0%-8.9%-2.6%
Q2 2018+13.3%+16.9%+5.9%
Q1 2018-16.7%-18.0%-21.3%
Q4 2017-14.9%-14.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017+1.5%+2.0%+13.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%-4.1%-8.1%
Q1 2017+10.7%+9.3%+24.6%
Q4 2016+13.7%+11.2%+9.2%
Q3 2016+0.5%-0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2016+6.9%+5.7%+20.4%
Q1 2016-10.2%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015+27.0%
Q1 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014+8.5%
Q3 2014-5.5%
Q2 2014-1.8%
Q1 2014+11.6%
Q4 2013-7.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012

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