NASDAQ$LGIH

LGI Homes Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LGI Homes reported strong Q4 2019 results driven by increased home closings and average home sales price.

LGI Homes reported a net income increase of 52.1% to $64.9 million for Q4 2019, with home sales revenues increasing by 42.5% to $605.6 million. The company closed 2,515 homes, a 35.8% increase, and the average home sales price rose by 4.9% to $240,815. Active selling communities increased to 106, up from 88 in Q4 2018.

  • Net income increased by 52.1% to $64.9 million.
  • Home sales revenues increased by 42.5% to $605.6 million.
  • Home closings increased by 35.8% to 2,515.
  • Average home sales price increased by 4.9% to $240,815.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$606M

Previous: $425M+42.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.52

Previous: $1.72+46.5%
Total Home Closings

2.5K

Previous: 1.9K+35.8%
Average Sales Price per Home Closed

$241K

Previous: $230K+4.9%
Net Income

$64.9M

Previous: $42.7M+52.1%
Operating Income

$84M

Previous: $55.4M+51.5%
Gross Profit

$142M

Previous: $104M+37.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$38.3M

Previous: $46.6M-17.8%
Total Assets

$1.67B

Previous: $1.4B+19.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.36M

Previous: $1.77M+33.6%

Revenue & EPS history

LGI Homes · Revenue · Quarterly

$606M

Q4 2019+42.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

LGI Homes anticipates closing between 8,400 and 9,400 homes and ending the year with 120 to 130 active selling communities in 2020. The company projects a gross margin between 22.5% and 24.5%, and an adjusted gross margin between 24.5% and 26.5%. The average home sales price is expected to be between $235,000 and $245,000.

Tailwinds

  • Projected home closings between 8,400 and 9,400.
  • Targeting 120 to 130 active selling communities by year-end.
  • Gross margin expected between 22.5% and 24.5%.
  • Adjusted gross margin projected between 24.5% and 26.5%.
  • Average home sales price expected between $235,000 and $245,000.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes similar economic conditions to early 2020.
  • Projections depend on consistent average home sales price.
  • Construction costs must remain in line with recent experience.
  • Land availability must remain consistent.
  • Land development costs must remain consistent.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+27.0%

Q2 2015

Best reaction

-16.7%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+7.7%+7.1%+7.5%
Q4 2025-4.4%-8.8%-39.1%
Q3 2025+9.3%+14.7%+24.3%
Q1 2025-7.8%-7.0%-14.4%
Q3 2024+6.2%+5.4%+2.1%
Q2 2024+9.6%+1.5%+1.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%+0.7%-0.6%
Q4 2023-9.7%-10.7%-11.2%
Q3 2023+12.6%+25.0%+32.8%
Q2 2023+0.6%-2.9%-11.3%
Q1 2023-1.6%-2.6%-3.1%
Q4 2022-8.7%-8.0%-2.7%
Q3 2022-9.4%-9.5%+11.1%
Q2 2022-6.6%-5.4%-18.9%
Q1 2022+6.9%-0.2%+1.0%
Q4 2021+5.4%+2.3%+1.4%
Q3 2021-10.2%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2021-8.2%-8.5%-5.7%
Q1 2021+0.0%+6.6%-0.3%
Q4 2020+0.7%-5.1%+25.8%
Q3 2020+8.1%+4.8%-4.3%
Q2 2020-1.3%-5.2%-2.8%
Q1 2020+6.7%+13.9%+36.4%
Q4 2019-16.7%-19.0%-45.0%
Q3 2019-1.1%-6.9%-1.1%
Q2 2019+9.7%+10.8%+21.4%
Q1 2019-5.4%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2018-3.5%-4.7%-1.2%
Q3 2018-12.0%-8.9%-2.6%
Q2 2018+13.3%+16.9%+5.9%
Q1 2018-16.7%-18.0%-21.3%
Q4 2017-14.9%-14.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017+1.5%+2.0%+13.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%-4.1%-8.1%
Q1 2017+10.7%+9.3%+24.6%
Q4 2016+13.7%+11.2%+9.2%
Q3 2016+0.5%-0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2016+6.9%+5.7%+20.4%
Q1 2016-10.2%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015+27.0%
Q1 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014+8.5%
Q3 2014-5.5%
Q2 2014-1.8%
Q1 2014+11.6%
Q4 2013-7.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012

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