NASDAQ$LGIH

LGI Homes Inc. · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LGI Homes reported record results driven by unprecedented demand and a well-positioned entry-level focused model.

LGI Homes reported a strong third quarter with significant increases in net income, home sales revenues, and home closings. The company saw unprecedented demand across its markets, driven by low interest rates and an undersupply of homes.

  • Net Income increased 80.4% to $89.0 million, or $3.55 Basic EPS and $3.52 Diluted EPS.
  • Home Sales Revenues increased 10.6% to $534.2 million.
  • Home Closings increased 4.4% to 2,091 homes.
  • Average Home Sales Price increased 5.9% to $255,477.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$534M

Previous: $483M+10.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.45

Previous: $1.93+26.9%
Total Home Closings

2.1K

Previous: 2.0K+4.4%
Average Sales Price per Home Closed

$255K

Previous: $241K+5.9%
Ending Backlog Homes

3.6K

No prior period
Ending Backlog Value

$933M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$89M

Previous: $49.3M+80.4%
Net Income

$89M

Previous: $49.3M+80.4%
Operating Income

$77.4M

Previous: $64M+21.0%
Gross Profit

$135M

Previous: $117M+15.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$46.3M

Previous: $37M+25.1%
Total Assets

$1.76B

Previous: $1.64B+7.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.93M

Previous: $1.76M+123.2%

Revenue & EPS history

LGI Homes · Revenue · Quarterly

$534M

Q3 2020+10.6%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company updates its guidance for the full year 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Home closings between 8,400 and 9,000
  • Active selling communities at the end of 2020 between 115 and 120
  • Gross margin as a percentage of home sales revenues between 24.0% and 25.0%
  • Adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) as a percentage of home sales revenues between 26.0% and 27.0% with capitalized interest accounting for substantially all the difference between gross margin and adjusted gross margin
  • Average sales price per home closed between $245,000 and $255,000

Headwinds

  • SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues between 10.3% and 10.8%
  • Effective tax rate for 2020 between 10.0% and 12.0%
  • This outlook assumes that general economic conditions, including interest rates and mortgage availability, in the remainder of 2020 are similar to those experienced so far in the fourth quarter of 2020 and that average sales price per home closed, construction costs, availability of land, land development costs and overall absorption rates in the remainder of 2020 are consistent with the Company’s recent experience.
  • In addition, this outlook assumes that governmental regulations relating to land development, home construction and COVID-19 are similar to those currently in place.
  • Any further COVID-19 governmental restrictions on land development or home construction could negatively impact our ability to achieve this guidance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+27.0%

Q2 2015

Best reaction

-16.7%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+7.7%+7.1%+7.5%
Q4 2025-4.4%-8.8%-39.1%
Q3 2025+9.3%+14.7%+24.3%
Q1 2025-7.8%-7.0%-14.4%
Q3 2024+6.2%+5.4%+2.1%
Q2 2024+9.6%+1.5%+1.6%
Q1 2024-6.9%+0.7%-0.6%
Q4 2023-9.7%-10.7%-11.2%
Q3 2023+12.6%+25.0%+32.8%
Q2 2023+0.6%-2.9%-11.3%
Q1 2023-1.6%-2.6%-3.1%
Q4 2022-8.7%-8.0%-2.7%
Q3 2022-9.4%-9.5%+11.1%
Q2 2022-6.6%-5.4%-18.9%
Q1 2022+6.9%-0.2%+1.0%
Q4 2021+5.4%+2.3%+1.4%
Q3 2021-10.2%-10.5%-0.7%
Q2 2021-8.2%-8.5%-5.7%
Q1 2021+0.0%+6.6%-0.3%
Q4 2020+0.7%-5.1%+25.8%
Q3 2020+8.1%+4.8%-4.3%
Q2 2020-1.3%-5.2%-2.8%
Q1 2020+6.7%+13.9%+36.4%
Q4 2019-16.7%-19.0%-45.0%
Q3 2019-1.1%-6.9%-1.1%
Q2 2019+9.7%+10.8%+21.4%
Q1 2019-5.4%-2.7%+2.3%
Q4 2018-3.5%-4.7%-1.2%
Q3 2018-12.0%-8.9%-2.6%
Q2 2018+13.3%+16.9%+5.9%
Q1 2018-16.7%-18.0%-21.3%
Q4 2017-14.9%-14.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017+1.5%+2.0%+13.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%-4.1%-8.1%
Q1 2017+10.7%+9.3%+24.6%
Q4 2016+13.7%+11.2%+9.2%
Q3 2016+0.5%-0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2016+6.9%+5.7%+20.4%
Q1 2016-10.2%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015+27.0%
Q1 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014+8.5%
Q3 2014-5.5%
Q2 2014-1.8%
Q1 2014+11.6%
Q4 2013-7.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012

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