NASDAQ$FWRD

Forward Air Corporation · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record fourth quarter and full year revenue, cash flow from operations and free cash flow, and created new Expedited Freight segment.

Forward Air Corporation reported a 7.0% increase in revenue for Q4 2019, reaching $381.5 million. Net income was $24.2 million, or $0.85 per diluted share. The company generated $43.7 million in cash flow from operations and $41.4 million in free cash flow.

  • Record fourth quarter revenue was achieved.
  • A new Expedited Freight segment was created.
  • Cash flow from operations increased to $43.7 million.
  • Free cash flow reached $41.4 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$382M

Previous: $357M+7.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.85

Previous: $0.95-10.5%
Drayage Revenue per Shipment

$603.00

Previous: $560.00+7.7%
Capital Expenditures

$1.11M

Previous: $7.95M-86.1%
Free Cash Flow

$41.4M

Previous: $30.8M+34.5%
Net Income

$24.2M

Previous: $27.7M-12.7%
Operating Income

$32.9M

Previous: $35M-6.3%
Gross Profit

$75.3M

Previous: $73M+3.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$64.7M

Previous: $25.7M+152.4%
Total Assets

$991M

Previous: $760M+30.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.9M

Previous: $3.02M-4.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Forward Air · Revenue · Quarterly

$382M

Q4 2019+7%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forward Air · $317M total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Expedited Freight
    $262M
  • Intermodal
    $54.7M

Forward guidance

The Company expects significant Final Mile revenue growth following the January 12th closing of our previously announced Linn Star acquisition, which we expect will drive consolidated first quarter year-on-year revenue growth of 13% to 17%. We expect net income per diluted share to be between $0.58 and $0.62 in the first quarter of 2020, reflecting continued headwinds from a soft macro environment as well as higher insurance-related costs.

Tailwinds

  • Significant Final Mile revenue growth expected.
  • Consolidated first quarter year-on-year revenue growth of 13% to 17% expected.

Headwinds

  • Continued headwinds from a soft macro environment.
  • Higher insurance-related costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

37 / 67 earnings

Positive

+27.5%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-19.8%

Q1 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.1%-11.3%+24.3%
Q4 2025+4.6%+0.0%-32.5%
Q3 2025+0.7%+16.1%+41.9%
Q1 2025+0.3%+9.7%+8.5%
Q4 2024-10.7%-14.0%-19.5%
Q3 2024+6.6%+3.4%+0.2%
Q2 2024+27.5%+15.9%+49.5%
Q1 2024-19.8%-22.7%-1.1%
Q4 2023-7.5%-20.8%-22.5%
Q3 2023-8.5%-5.9%-9.7%
Q2 2023-5.4%-6.3%-39.5%
Q1 2023-6.5%-7.8%-7.8%
Q4 2022-15.3%-11.1%-8.7%
Q3 2022+0.6%+4.9%+9.7%
Q2 2022+6.9%+10.0%+7.2%
Q1 2022+6.7%+8.1%+2.5%
Q4 2021-5.0%-5.5%-5.7%
Q3 2021+3.2%+11.4%+7.6%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.9%+2.8%
Q1 2021+1.1%+11.8%+11.0%
Q4 2020+1.6%+5.8%+17.0%
Q3 2020+4.9%+11.0%+23.6%
Q2 2020-1.6%+2.8%+11.8%
Q1 2020-9.3%-11.2%-7.1%
Q4 2019-4.7%-7.1%-15.6%
Q3 2019+6.8%+8.2%+5.6%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.4%-5.0%
Q1 2019-1.5%-6.5%-13.8%
Q4 2018+9.0%+10.2%+4.7%
Q3 2018-8.3%-7.4%-1.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+7.6%+10.7%
Q1 2018+5.2%+3.1%+14.1%
Q4 2017-6.0%-4.5%-3.9%
Q3 2017-1.1%-2.1%-6.1%
Q2 2017-6.7%-4.8%-6.3%
Q1 2017+7.8%+4.1%+2.6%
Q4 2016+6.1%+6.8%+1.6%
Q3 2016-1.5%-0.7%+16.4%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.4%+2.7%
Q1 2016+0.3%
Q4 2015-13.4%
Q3 2015+3.7%
Q2 2015-5.1%
Q1 2015+3.2%
Q4 2014+6.1%
Q3 2014-4.5%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013+1.2%
Q2 2013-5.2%
Q1 2013+0.0%
Q4 2012+0.6%
Q3 2012+5.8%
Q2 2012+4.6%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-2.3%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.5%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q4 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+6.4%
Q4 2008+2.4%
Q2 2009-1.9%
Q3 2009-1.9%
Q2 2010+2.3%
Q4 2009+2.3%

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