NASDAQ$FWRD

Forward Air Corporation · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net income per diluted share exceeded guidance range and freight quality was at record levels.

Forward Air Corporation reported a decrease in revenue by 9% due to softer than anticipated demand, but net income per diluted share of $1.37 exceeded the high end of the guidance range. Revenue quality continues to improve as revenue per ton mile increased for both airport-to-airport and door-to-door services. The company is targeting a net income per diluted share of $6.20 to $6.60 for the full year 2023.

  • Net income per diluted share of $1.37 exceeded the high end of the $1.30 to $1.34 guidance range.
  • Revenue declined by 9%, falling below the guidance range of minus 4% to plus 2%.
  • Revenue per ton mile excluding fuel increased 2.5% for airport-to-airport and 4% for door-to-door.
  • The company is targeting net income per diluted share of $6.20 to $6.60 for the full year 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$427M

Previous: $467M-8.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.37

Previous: $1.57-12.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.79M

Previous: -$9.91M+31.5%
Free Cash Flow

$29.6M

Previous: $32.8M-9.8%
Net Income

$36.4M

Previous: $42.7M-14.8%
Operating Income

$50.5M

Previous: $57.4M-11.9%
Gross Profit

$242M

Previous: $242M-0.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$32M

Previous: $61.6M-48.0%
Total Assets

$1.23B

Previous: $1.17B+5.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.91M

Previous: $2.76M+5.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Forward Air · Revenue · Quarterly

$427M

Q1 2023-8.5%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 2 of 14 quarters(14%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Forward Air · $427M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Expedited Freight
    $339M-10.0%
  • Intermodal
    $88.2M-2.5%

Forward guidance

The company expects year-over-year revenue to decline 7% to 17% and net income per diluted share in the range of $1.28 to $1.32 for the second quarter of 2023.

Headwinds

  • Year-over-year revenue is expected to decline 7% to 17%.
  • Net income per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $1.28 to $1.32.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

37 / 67 earnings

Positive

+27.5%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-19.8%

Q1 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.1%-11.3%
Q4 2025+4.6%+0.0%-32.5%
Q3 2025+0.7%+16.1%+41.9%
Q1 2025+0.3%+9.7%+8.5%
Q4 2024-10.7%-14.0%-19.5%
Q3 2024+6.6%+3.4%+0.2%
Q2 2024+27.5%+15.9%+49.5%
Q1 2024-19.8%-22.7%-1.1%
Q4 2023-7.5%-20.8%-22.5%
Q3 2023-8.5%-5.9%-9.7%
Q2 2023-5.4%-6.3%-39.5%
Q1 2023-6.5%-7.8%-7.8%
Q4 2022-15.3%-11.1%-8.7%
Q3 2022+0.6%+4.9%+9.7%
Q2 2022+6.9%+10.0%+7.2%
Q1 2022+6.7%+8.1%+2.5%
Q4 2021-5.0%-5.5%-5.7%
Q3 2021+3.2%+11.4%+7.6%
Q2 2021+2.0%+2.9%+2.8%
Q1 2021+1.1%+11.8%+11.0%
Q4 2020+1.6%+5.8%+17.0%
Q3 2020+4.9%+11.0%+23.6%
Q2 2020-1.6%+2.8%+11.8%
Q1 2020-9.3%-11.2%-7.1%
Q4 2019-4.7%-7.1%-15.6%
Q3 2019+6.8%+8.2%+5.6%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.4%-5.0%
Q1 2019-1.5%-6.5%-13.8%
Q4 2018+9.0%+10.2%+4.7%
Q3 2018-8.3%-7.4%-1.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+7.6%+10.7%
Q1 2018+5.2%+3.1%+14.1%
Q4 2017-6.0%-4.5%-3.9%
Q3 2017-1.1%-2.1%-6.1%
Q2 2017-6.7%-4.8%-6.3%
Q1 2017+7.8%+4.1%+2.6%
Q4 2016+6.1%+6.8%+1.6%
Q3 2016-1.5%-0.7%+16.4%
Q2 2016+4.9%+4.4%+2.7%
Q1 2016+0.3%
Q4 2015-13.4%
Q3 2015+3.7%
Q2 2015-5.1%
Q1 2015+3.2%
Q4 2014+6.1%
Q3 2014-4.5%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013+1.2%
Q2 2013-5.2%
Q1 2013+0.0%
Q4 2012+0.6%
Q3 2012+5.8%
Q2 2012+4.6%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-2.3%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q2 2011-2.5%
Q4 2010+1.6%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+6.4%
Q4 2008+2.4%
Q2 2009-1.9%
Q3 2009-1.9%
Q4 2009+2.3%
Q2 2010+2.3%

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