NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results, showing a comprehensive loss per common share and a decrease in tangible net book value, but generated strong net spread and dollar roll income.

AGNC Investment Corp. reported a challenging first quarter due to elevated geopolitical risk, growing inflation concerns, and tighter monetary policy. The company experienced a comprehensive loss per common share of $(2.23) and a decrease in tangible net book value per common share to $13.12. However, the company generated strong net spread and dollar roll income, excluding 'catch-up' premium amortization, of $0.72 per common share.

  • Comprehensive loss per common share was $(2.23).
  • Net spread and dollar roll income per common share was $0.72, excluding estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization benefit.
  • Tangible net book value per common share decreased to $13.12 as of March 31, 2022.
  • Economic return on tangible common equity for the quarter was -14.4%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$448M

Previous: $528M-15.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.72

Previous: $0.76-5.3%
Net Interest Spread

2.2%

Previous: 2.0%+9.5%
At-Risk Leverage Ratio

7.5

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$651M

Previous: $975M-166.8%
Net Income

-$651M

Previous: $975M-166.8%
Operating Income

$427M

Previous: $504M-15.3%
Gross Profit

$448M

Previous: $528M-15.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$1B

Previous: $963M+4.3%
Total Assets

$66.4B

Previous: $85.5B-22.4%
Stock-Based Comp

-$6M

Previous: $3M-300.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

$448M

Q1 2022-15.2%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 3 of 16 quarters(19%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Following the significant repricing of Agency MBS over the last two quarters, AGNC believes that levered returns on many segments of the Agency MBS market are attractive and adequately compensate investors for the risks associated with the current environment. The company's portfolio positioning and attractive dividend make AGNC a compelling long-term investment opportunity.

Tailwinds

  • Levered returns on many segments of the Agency MBS market are attractive on both an absolute and relative basis.
  • Levered returns adequately compensate investors for the risks associated with the current environment.
  • Weakness in Agency MBS valuation would further enhance projected returns on new investments.
  • Improved investment outlook on existing and new Agency MBS investments.
  • Attractive dividend.

Headwinds

  • Agency MBS could experience additional valuation declines due to the reduced Fed presence.
  • Agency MBS could experience additional valuation declines due to seasonal new mortgage originations.
  • The investment environment was very challenging in the first quarter.
  • Interest rates repriced materially higher.
  • Fixed income spreads widened.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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