NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2023.

AGNC Investment Corp. reported a comprehensive income per common share of $0.32, which included net income per common share of $0.43. The company's tangible net book value per common share was $9.39 as of June 30, 2023, representing a decrease of $(0.02) per share for the quarter. AGNC generated a 3.6% economic return on tangible common equity, consisting of $0.36 dividends per common share and a $(0.02) decrease in tangible net book value per common share.

  • Comprehensive income per common share was $0.32.
  • Net spread and dollar roll income per common share was $0.67, excluding estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization benefit.
  • Tangible net book value per common share decreased by $(0.02) to $9.39.
  • Economic return on tangible common equity was 3.6%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$69M

Previous: $315M-121.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.67

Previous: $0.83-19.3%
Economic Return on Equity

3.6%

No prior period
Net Interest Spread

3.3%

No prior period
At-Risk Leverage Ratio

7.2

Previous: 7.4-2.7%
Free Cash Flow

$286M

Previous: -$434M+165.9%
Net Income

$286M

Previous: -$434M+165.9%
Operating Income

-$92M

Previous: $295M-131.2%
Gross Profit

-$69M

Previous: $315M-121.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$716M

Previous: $906M-21.0%
Total Assets

$60.5B

Previous: $61.2B-1.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

-$69M

Q2 2023-121.9%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 2 of 15 quarters(13%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Management believes that they are at the forefront of one of the most constructive investment environments in their 15 year history, driven by historically attractive asset valuations, strong funding markets, and gradually improving hedging conditions as the Fed's tightening campaign concludes.

Tailwinds

  • Favorable investment outlook for Agency MBS.
  • Historically attractive asset valuations.
  • Strong funding markets.
  • Gradually improving hedging conditions as the Fed's tightening campaign concludes.
  • Portfolio can generate robust risk-adjusted returns for stockholders.

Headwinds

  • Short term deviations from this promising path are possible.
  • Changes in monetary policy and other factors that affect interest rates.
  • MBS spreads to benchmark interest rates, the forward yield curve, or prepayment rates.
  • The availability and terms of financing.
  • Changes in the market value of the Company's assets.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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