NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AGNC's financial results for Q4 2019 were announced, showcasing a strong quarter driven by tightening Agency MBS spreads and a favorable interest rate environment.

AGNC Investment Corp. reported a strong fourth quarter in 2019, with a 9.6% economic return driven by dividends and an increase in tangible net book value. The company benefited from Federal Reserve monetary easing and reduced global trade uncertainty.

  • Comprehensive income per common share was $1.59, including $1.56 net income per common share.
  • Tangible net book value per common share increased to $17.66, up 6.7% from the previous quarter.
  • Net spread and dollar roll income per common share was $0.57, excluding estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization benefit.
  • The investment portfolio totaled $107.9 billion, including $98.9 billion in Agency MBS and $7.4 billion in net TBA mortgage positions.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$287M

Previous: $186M+54.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.57

Previous: $0.53+7.5%
Economic Return on Equity

9.6%

No prior period
Portfolio CPR

15.4%

No prior period
Net Interest Spread

1.3%

No prior period
At-Risk Leverage Ratio

9.4

No prior period
Net Income

$871M

Previous: -$804M+208.3%
Operating Income

$846M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$831M

Previous: $921M-9.8%
Total Assets

$113B

Previous: $109B+3.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $1M+400.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

$287M

Q4 2019+54.3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 0 of 16 quarters(0%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AGNC believes it is well-positioned to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns due to a benign interest rate environment and favorable developments in financing.

Tailwinds

  • Favorable interest rate environment
  • Positive developments on the financing front
  • Potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns
  • Low-cost advantage in the residential mortgage REIT sector
  • Additional capacity to take advantage of favorable earnings environments

Headwinds

  • Changes in interest rates
  • Changes in the yield curve
  • Changes in prepayment rates
  • Availability and terms of financing
  • General economic conditions

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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