NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results, showing a positive economic return and stable market conditions.

AGNC Investment Corp. reported strong third quarter financial results with a $0.37 comprehensive income per common share and a 2.3% economic return on tangible common equity. The company benefited from stable market conditions, a modest increase in tangible net book value, and an attractive dividend yield.

  • Comprehensive income per common share was $0.37.
  • Net spread and dollar roll income per common share was $0.75, excluding estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization cost.
  • Tangible net book value per common share increased to $16.41.
  • Economic return on tangible common equity was 2.3% for the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$279M

Previous: $302M-7.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.75

Previous: $0.81-7.4%
Portfolio CPR

22.5%

Previous: 24.3%-7.4%
Net Interest Spread

2.2%

Previous: 2.1%+1.9%
Free Cash Flow

$212M

No prior period
Net Income

$212M

Previous: $662M-68.0%
Operating Income

$257M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$279M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$981M

Previous: $857M+14.5%
Total Assets

$68.8B

Previous: $80B-14.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $5M+20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

$279M

Q3 2021-7.6%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 3 of 16 quarters(19%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

While the investment backdrop for Agency MBS has improved, uncertainty remains with respect to the broader economic and interest rate landscape, particularly considering the ongoing improvement in the labor market and increasing inflationary pressures. AGNC believes it is well positioned for this environment with its balanced asset portfolio, significant hedge protection and very conservative leverage profile.

Tailwinds

  • Greater clarity from the Federal Reserve.
  • Moderately higher interest rates.
  • Slower prepayment expectations.
  • More favorable investment outlook for Agency MBS.
  • The Federal Reserve communicated a potential timeline for the reduction in outright asset purchases.

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty remains with respect to the broader economic and interest rate landscape.
  • Ongoing improvement in the labor market.
  • Increasing inflationary pressures.
  • Changes in interest rates
  • Changes in MBS spreads to benchmark interest rates

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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