NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AGNC reported a strong economic return driven by active portfolio management and stable net spread and dollar roll income.

AGNC Investment Corp. announced financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, reporting comprehensive income of $1.00 per common share and a 12.1% economic return on tangible common equity. The company's tangible net book value per common share increased by 7.7% to $8.70, and net spread and dollar roll income remained strong at $0.60 per common share.

  • Comprehensive income was $1.00 per common share, including $0.57 net income and $0.43 OCI.
  • Net spread and dollar roll income was $0.60 per common share, including $0.01 from dollar roll income and excluding $0.05 of estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization benefit.
  • Tangible net book value per common share increased to $8.70, a 7.7% increase from the previous quarter.
  • The economic return on tangible common equity was 12.1% for the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$26M

Previous: $25M-204.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.60

Previous: $0.74-18.9%
Economic Return on Equity

12.1%

Previous: 12.3%-1.6%
Net Interest Spread

3.1%

Previous: 2.7%+12.4%
At-Risk Leverage Ratio

7

No prior period
Net Income

$412M

Previous: $561M-26.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

-$26M

Q4 2023-204%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 2 of 15 quarters(13%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AGNC believes that the factors that drove adverse conditions in the past two years are largely behind them. Attractive Agency MBS spreads combined with declining interest rate volatility create a compelling investment environment.

Tailwinds

  • Historically attractive Agency MBS spreads.
  • Declining interest rate volatility.
  • Active portfolio management strategy.
  • Strong net spread and dollar roll income.
  • Stable and compelling monthly dividend.

Headwinds

  • Changes in monetary policy and other factors that affect interest rates.
  • MBS spreads to benchmark interest rates.
  • The forward yield curve, or prepayment rates.
  • The availability and terms of financing.
  • Changes in the market value of the Company's assets.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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