NASDAQ$AGNC

AGNC Investment Corp · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AGNC reported strong financial performance, driven by stable interest rates and the Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases.

AGNC Investment Corp. announced financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, with a comprehensive income of $1.28 per common share and a tangible net book value of $15.88 per common share, representing an increase of 6.4% for the quarter.

  • Comprehensive income per common share was $1.28, including $1.15 net income and $0.13 other comprehensive income.
  • Net spread and dollar roll income per common share was $0.81, excluding estimated 'catch-up' premium amortization cost.
  • Tangible net book value per common share increased to $15.88, a 6.4% increase from the previous quarter.
  • The company repurchased 11.0 million shares of common stock for $154 million during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$302M

Previous: $15M+1913.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.81

Previous: $0.59+37.3%
Economic Return on Equity

8.8%

Previous: 2.7%+225.9%
Portfolio CPR

24.3%

Previous: 13.5%+80.0%
Net Interest Spread

2.1%

Previous: 1.3%+64.1%
Net Income

$662M

Previous: -$4M+16650.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$857M

Previous: $906M-5.4%
Total Assets

$80B

Previous: $110B-27.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $3M+66.7%

Revenue & EPS history

AGNC · Revenue · Quarterly

$302M

Q3 2020+1,913.3%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 1 of 16 quarters(6%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Fed's announced policy shift to average inflation targeting will likely cause the current low rate environment to persist for a prolonged period, which should be beneficial to the investment environment.

Tailwinds

  • Stable interest rates
  • Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases
  • Fed's announced policy shift to average inflation targeting
  • Strong earnings environment
  • Attractive hedging and funding opportunities

Headwinds

  • Changes in interest rates
  • Changes in the yield curve
  • Changes in prepayment rates
  • Availability and terms of financing
  • Changes in the market value of the Company's assets

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+9.2%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2025+3.2%-3.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025-0.5%+1.0%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.2%+1.0%+5.9%
Q1 2025+3.6%+8.5%+8.0%
Q4 2024+0.8%+1.8%+6.4%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.3%-9.0%
Q2 2024+1.0%-1.7%-0.7%
Q1 2024+2.4%+2.0%+6.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+0.2%-3.2%
Q3 2023+5.4%+19.3%+27.9%
Q2 2023+3.0%+2.3%-4.2%
Q1 2023-3.0%-1.4%-11.7%
Q4 2022-0.7%+2.4%-9.3%
Q3 2022+2.2%+5.7%+27.3%
Q2 2022-0.2%+3.8%+2.1%
Q1 2022+9.2%+13.0%+10.8%
Q4 2021-0.5%-3.5%-10.6%
Q3 2021-0.2%-3.8%-3.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-1.6%+2.0%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.6%+6.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%-3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%-1.6%+10.3%
Q2 2020+0.4%+0.6%+3.9%
Q1 2020-2.1%-2.2%+2.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+1.2%-7.4%
Q3 2019+2.4%+2.2%+4.0%
Q2 2019-1.9%-0.6%-10.8%
Q1 2019-2.0%-2.5%-6.2%
Q4 2018-1.1%-1.5%-3.0%
Q3 2018+2.7%+2.7%-1.0%
Q2 2018+1.1%+2.3%+0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%+0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017-1.5%-4.5%-4.9%
Q3 2017-5.0%-6.1%-6.4%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.6%+2.8%
Q1 2017+2.3%+1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2016+0.9%+2.8%+4.8%
Q3 2016+3.6%+1.8%-2.9%
Q2 2016-0.3%-0.1%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+1.7%
Q1 2015-3.6%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+0.4%
Q2 2014-0.4%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013-9.1%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-7.1%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011+6.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.8%
Q2 2010+2.2%
Q1 2010+1.7%

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