NYSE$TMHC

Taylor Morrison Home Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Taylor Morrison reported a decrease in home closings but an increase in revenue and earnings per share compared to the same quarter last year.

Taylor Morrison reported Q4 2022 results, featuring an EPS of $2.51 and an adjusted EPS of $2.93. Home closings decreased by 11% to 3,797 homes, but revenue remained strong at $2.4 billion. The company's home closings gross margin improved by 190 basis points to 23.5% on a reported basis.

  • Home closings declined 11% to 3,797 homes, generating $2.4 billion in revenue.
  • Home closings gross margin improved 190 basis points to 23.5% on a reported basis.
  • Net sales orders decreased 42% to 1,810, representing a monthly absorption pace of 1.9 per community.
  • SG&A as a percentage of home closings revenue decreased 50 basis points to 7.3%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.49B

Previous: $2.51B-0.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.93

Previous: $2.19+33.8%
Net Sales Orders

1.8K

No prior period
Mortgage Capture Rate

78.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$8.1M

Previous: $5.5M+47.3%
Free Cash Flow

$640M

Previous: $475M+34.8%
Net Income

$275M

Previous: $273M+1.0%
Operating Income

$369M

Previous: $343M+7.6%
Gross Profit

$600M

Previous: $552M+8.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$724M

Previous: $833M-13.0%
Total Assets

$8.47B

Previous: $8.73B-2.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$9.43M

Previous: $4.82M+95.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Taylor Morrison · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.49B

Q4 2022-0.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Taylor Morrison provided guidance for Q1 2023 and full year 2023, including expectations for home closings, average closing price, gross margin, SG&A percentage, effective tax rate, and diluted share count.

Tailwinds

  • Ending active community count is expected to be between 325 to 330
  • Home closings are expected to be between 2,300 to 2,400
  • Average closing price is expected to be between $630,000 to $640,000
  • GAAP home closings gross margin is expected to be approximately 23.5 percent
  • Homebuilding land and development spend is expected to be similar to 2022

Headwinds

  • SG&A as a percentage of home closings revenue is expected to be approximately 11%
  • Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25 percent
  • Diluted share count is expected to be approximately 110 million
  • Home closings are expected to be between 10,000 to 11,000
  • Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25 percent

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+11.5%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.5%+1.6%-6.4%
Q4 2025-1.1%+3.7%-10.9%
Q3 2025-3.2%-4.4%-2.9%
Q2 2025-1.9%-0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2025-2.0%-2.6%-4.0%
Q4 2024+3.3%+2.9%-5.9%
Q3 2024+5.4%+7.8%+9.6%
Q2 2024-0.6%+2.8%+4.1%
Q1 2024-2.8%-0.9%-1.0%
Q4 2023+7.9%+3.2%+6.4%
Q3 2023-2.8%-3.6%+15.3%
Q2 2023-5.4%-3.2%-11.5%
Q1 2023+4.9%+5.6%+7.9%
Q4 2022+0.6%-0.4%-1.3%
Q3 2022-4.0%-2.6%+8.6%
Q2 2022+4.8%+6.1%-3.0%
Q1 2022-1.5%-1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2021+4.2%-0.5%+4.4%
Q3 2021+11.5%+14.4%+16.5%
Q2 2021+6.3%+8.3%+13.2%
Q1 2021-4.8%-3.8%-9.7%
Q4 2020-0.5%-3.0%-3.2%
Q3 2020-3.4%-3.8%+11.7%
Q2 2020-5.3%-6.5%-1.9%
Q1 2020-0.5%+8.9%+48.4%
Q4 2019-0.5%-1.3%-18.5%
Q3 2019-5.1%-8.6%-12.1%
Q2 2019+2.1%-1.2%+6.4%
Q1 2019+9.8%+6.9%+3.2%
Q4 2018-6.4%-8.4%-10.5%
Q3 2018+2.7%+4.4%+6.9%
Q2 2018-0.9%-0.6%-0.4%
Q1 2018-6.0%-5.6%-10.0%
Q4 2017-1.2%-2.3%-2.2%
Q3 2017-3.3%-2.9%-1.0%
Q2 2017-3.7%-3.7%-12.3%
Q1 2017+2.6%+2.2%+5.1%
Q4 2016-8.9%+0.1%+9.2%
Q3 2016+6.2%+9.5%+17.3%
Q2 2016+5.6%+8.9%+10.8%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015+3.7%
Q3 2015-6.3%
Q2 2015+5.4%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014-2.8%
Q3 2014+6.3%
Q2 2014-0.6%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013+8.1%
Q3 2013-2.0%
Q2 2013-8.8%
Q1 2013-5.4%
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012

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