NYSE$TAP

Molson Coors Brewing Co · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Molson Coors reported an increase in net sales and net income for Q4 2019.

Molson Coors Beverage Company reported a 2.8% increase in net sales and a 115.4% increase in net income for the fourth quarter of 2019. The company's underlying EPS increased by 21.4% to $1.02, and underlying EBITDA increased by 15.8% to $563.1 million.

  • Net sales increased by 2.8% due to net sales per hectoliter growth and higher financial volume.
  • U.S. GAAP net income attributable to MCBC increased by $87.7 million.
  • Underlying net income increased 21.5% driven by the same factors as U.S. GAAP net income with the exception of restructuring charges and one-time pension and postretirement costs.
  • Underlying EBITDA increased 15.8% on a constant currency basis, largely driven by the same factors as underlying net income.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.49B

Previous: $2.42B+2.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.02

Previous: $0.84+21.4%
Total Financial Volume

21.8M

No prior period
Net Income

$164M

No prior period
Operating Income

$311M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Molson Coors · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.49B

Q4 2019+2.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molson Coors · $2.52B total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Americas Segment Net Sales
    $1.99B
  • EMEA&APAC Segment Net Sales
    $531M

Forward guidance

Molson Coors expects a flat to low-single digit decrease in net sales revenue on a constant currency basis for full year 2020. Underlying EBITDA is expected to decrease high-single digit from the full year 2019 underlying EBITDA of $2.364 billion, on a constant currency basis. Underlying free cash flow is projected at $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.

Tailwinds

  • The company intends to maintain its investment grade rating.
  • The company plans to maintain a dividend payout-ratio target in the range of 20%-25% of trailing annual underlying EBITDA.
  • Cost savings are expected to be approximately $600 million for the 2020 to 2022 program which includes the cost savings associated with the revitalization program.
  • Underlying depreciation and amortization: approximately $850 million.
  • Consolidated net interest expense: approximately $280 million, plus or minus 5%.

Headwinds

  • Net Sales Revenue: flat to low-single digit decrease on a constant currency basis.
  • Underlying EBITDA: high-single digit decrease from the full year 2019 underlying EBITDA of $2.364 billion, on a constant currency basis.
  • Underlying free cash flow: $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.
  • Capital spending: approximately $700 million, plus or minus 10%.
  • Underlying effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 24% for 2020 and beyond, which remains subject to additional definitive guidance and finalized regulations from the U.S. government regarding the implementation of the tax reform legislation from 2017.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

34 / 72 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-17.1%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.0%-0.5%-6.9%
Q4 2025+0.8%-1.8%-18.5%
Q3 2025+1.0%+7.2%+5.4%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.9%-8.5%
Q4 2024+9.5%+13.4%+11.5%
Q3 2024+5.4%+9.5%+8.2%
Q2 2024+1.9%+3.6%+9.2%
Q1 2024-10.2%-9.0%-16.3%
Q4 2023-1.1%+0.1%+6.2%
Q3 2023+1.4%+1.6%+6.4%
Q2 2023-3.5%-6.4%-9.0%
Q1 2023+7.5%+7.3%+3.1%
Q4 2022+1.8%+3.4%-4.7%
Q3 2022-2.2%+1.5%+9.0%
Q2 2022-9.2%-9.4%-13.9%
Q1 2022-2.0%-2.2%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.7%+7.4%+11.1%
Q3 2021+1.1%+4.6%+4.5%
Q2 2021-1.3%-0.8%-4.1%
Q1 2021+5.9%+8.8%+12.4%
Q4 2020-10.1%-9.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.1%+17.5%+42.2%
Q2 2020+2.2%+0.1%+3.2%
Q1 2020-15.7%-18.9%-17.8%
Q4 2019-4.6%-4.8%-26.7%
Q3 2019-3.6%-2.0%-7.7%
Q2 2019-7.8%-11.1%-9.8%
Q1 2019-6.7%-5.0%-14.3%
Q4 2018-8.7%-6.8%-7.5%
Q3 2018+13.4%+8.4%+13.0%
Q2 2018+2.7%+3.1%-0.4%
Q1 2018-17.1%-16.8%-14.0%
Q4 2017+8.0%+7.6%+5.9%
Q3 2017-2.2%-2.4%-2.1%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.7%+0.9%
Q1 2017-3.8%-1.5%+1.6%
Q4 2016+2.9%+5.6%+2.1%
Q3 2016-0.2%-1.0%-8.8%
Q2 2016-1.2%-1.8%+1.6%
Q1 2016+1.4%
Q4 2015-0.0%
Q3 2015+0.2%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015+1.4%
Q4 2014-4.4%
Q3 2014+4.1%
Q2 2014+3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013+3.6%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013+5.4%
Q1 2013-2.5%
Q4 2012-2.4%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2012-2.5%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q2 2011+0.2%
Q4 2011+0.2%
Q3 2011-0.3%
Q1 2011-2.2%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+2.4%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q1 2009-3.0%
Q1 2010-2.1%
Q2 2009+1.7%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q3 2008-2.9%
Q4 2008-2.4%
Q2 2008-2.4%

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